NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Friday 5/13/22: Can the Underdogs Cover in Game 6?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

Series
- Milwaukee Bucks 3, Boston Celtics 2

Main Algorithm Picks
- Over (210.5, 4 stars)
- Celtics Spread (+1.5, 1 star)
- Celtics Moneyline (+102, 1 star)

While our model is viewing this game as pretty much a coin flip (it has Boston 50.6% favored to win), the primary interest is on the over.

It's been an under-friendly playoffs (27-20-0), but the projected final score in this game totals 221.7 points, per numberFire's model. The over is viewed as 71.2% likely to hit, which leads to a 36.0% expected return.

The spread and moneyline bets are trending toward the Celtics, via our algorithm. We could take Boston +1.5 and plan for an expected return of 6.4%.

With Robert Williams off the floor since the All-Star break but with at least one of Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, the Celtics have a +14.1 net rating when we remove low-leverage possessions from the data set.

In those same date and leverage conditions, the Bucks have a +9.4 net rating without Khris Middleton but with one of Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jrue Holiday on the floor.

My model views the spread as 0.9 points in favor of Milwaukee, so I can see taking the +1.5 here on Boston. But it also loves the over, making it the best bet in this game.

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

Series
- Golden State Warriors 3, Memphis Grizzlies 2

Main Algorithm Picks
- Grizzlies Spread (+8.0, 3 stars)
- Grizzlies Moneyline (+285, 2 stars)
- Over (218.0, 1 star)

As laid out before Wednesday's Game 5, the Grizzlies are a good team even without Ja Morant.

With Game 5 factored in, their non-garbage net rating without Morant since the break is a +8.6 in 680 minutes, a sizable sample that certainly smooths out possessions against weak opponents and in blowouts.

The Warriors, however, are a perfect 5-0 at home in the playoffs with a +14.6 point differential.

Memphis is 2-3 on the road in the postseason and covered the spread in 3 of those 5 games.

The odds that Memphis keeps it within 8 points, per our model, are 64.3%.

Since 2017, road playoff teams who were underdogs of 7.5 to 8.5 points are 27-19-0 against the spread (58.7%) with a 19-27 record outright (41.3% win rate).