NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 5/3/22: Will Both Home Teams Cover?

What does the data say about each home team's chance to cover the spread tonight?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics

- Milwaukee Bucks 1, Boston Celtics 0

Main Algorithm Picks
- Over 215.5 (3 stars)

- Celtics Moneyline (-190, 2 stars)
- Celtics Spread (-4.5, 1 star)

The Celtics will look to bounce back after a 101-89 Game 1 loss to the Bucks.

Our model likes -- primarily -- the over (215.5) but also the Celtics to win (-190) and cover (-4.5).

Let's start with the spread and moneyline and move to the total.

While 76% of the spread bets are on the Bucks, only 65% of the money is on them to cover the spread, suggesting that some heavier bettors are backing the Celtics -4.5.

In digging deep into Game 1, the Celtics generated a better shot quality rating (53.0%) than the Bucks (49.0%), but the Bucks won the effective field goal percentage (eFG%) battle 47.8% to 44.1%.

Of note, the Celtics had a higher shot frequency on wide-open threes (26.2% to 23.3%) but were outshot on them 47.6% to 36.4%. Boston also had 27.4% of their shots qualify as open threes but shot just 34.8% on them.

Better shooting should lead to a Boston win (which our algorithm views happening at a 70.7% rate, besting their implied moneyline odds of 65.5%).

Our model, again, prefers the over to anything else in this game and projects a final score that totals 221.9. The over is rating out as 62.9% likely to hit.

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies

- Golden State Warriors 1, Memphis Grizzlies 0

Main Algorithm Picks
- Grizzlies Moneyline (+114, 4 stars)

- Grizzlies Spread (+2.5, 4 stars)
- Under (227.5, 3 stars)

The Grizzlies let Game 1 slip by and could not convert after Draymond Green was ejected in the first half for a Flagrant 2 foul.

Our model projects them to right the ship tonight both to win (+114) and cover (+2.5). They're viewed as 63.8% likely to win, suggesting their moneyline odds should be -176.

They're viewed as 68.6% likely to keep it within 3 points and cover the spread, which indicates a 31.0% expected return on investment on spread bets.

Similar to what we saw with the Bucks/Celtics game, it's the Warriors getting more spread bets (57%) but the Grizzlies getting a disproportionate amount of the money (52%). It's not a cavernous gap, but it's noteworthy.

Our model also likes the under (227.5), which is 64.0% likely and tied to an expected return of 22.2%.