NBA Betting Guide for Friday 4/8/22: Unders All Around

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)

Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons

Under (227.5) - 3 stars
Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-205) - 3 stars

The Bucks scored a 127-121 win last night against the Boston Celtics at home and now travel to play the Detroit Pistons, who need to keep losing to keep onto their 14.0% first pick odds.

The main play here for me (and for the night in general) is the under (227.5). The under is rating out as 64.3% likely to hit, good for a 22.7% expected return.

So far through three games, the under is 3-0 in this series, and games have averaged 6.5 points shy of the over/under.

Since the break, these teams are hovering around the 50% mark on overs and unders, for what that's worth.

The model also likes Milwaukee's moneyline. The public is backing the Bucks, who are still playing for seeding, to get this one done and to cover a 4.5-point spread, as well.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets

Under (232.5) - 4 stars
Cleveland Cavaliers Spread (+8.5) - 4 stars
Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline (+280) - 3 stars

The current 7 seed (Cleveland) and 8 seed (Brooklyn Nets) square up tonight in Brooklyn. Just one game separates the 43-37 Cavaliers and the 42-38 Nets.

Our model likes Brooklyn to win with a 56.3% probability (my model gives them a 65.3% chance, for what it's worth) but views the Cavaliers as 70.2% likely to cover the 8.5-point spread.

Once more, where I'm focusing is the total, and the data points to the under. Since the All-Star break, both teams have played exactly to their implied team total, but at home Brooklyn is falling 5.0 points shy, on average.

In the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, the under is 23-2.

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat

Under (230.0) - 2 stars
Miami Heat Spread (+2.0) - 4 stars
Miami Heat Moneyline (+108) - 5 stars

This game has playoff implications...for the Atlanta Hawks. Miami has clinched the 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Our model still likes them to win and cover while not featuring a massive injury list. Also, 61% of public bets are on the Heat to cover.

The algorithm also likes the under (230.0), which is 59.4% likely to hit. The expected return is 13.5%.

The top 25 historical games have finished 21-4 on the under for an 84.0% hit rate.

Since the break, Miami has a 28.6% over rate on their implied team total (falling short by 5.9 points on average).

Atlanta's post-break road splits are 27.3% and -4.6, respectively.