NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 1/18/22: What Can We Bet on a Small Slate?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks
The model here at numberFire is taking a side in this game between the 22-22 New York Knicks and the 21-22 Minnesota Timberwolves, and it's on the Knicks at home.
The algo likes the Knicks to win with a 59.6% probability, naturally making their moneyline (+132) an actionable play.
In fact, their moneyline is a three-star suggestion (i.e. a three-unit play). The Knicks' spread (+3.0) is also a three-star recommendation in this game, via numberFire's algorithm.
The Knicks are without Derrick Rose, and they list Kemba Walker as questionable. My model, adjusting for injury news, sees the spread as 2.0, so it would also lean on the Knicks' side here -- albeit less heavily.
Both my model and numberFire's like a lean on the over (213.0), as well.
Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors
numberFire's model is drawing a blank on this game. There's no pick on the spread or moneyline. The only lean is on the over (218.5), which is a one-star suggestion.
My model has it about the same.
Using data with Stephen Curry and without Draymond Green for the Golden State Warriors and with Cade Cunningham and without Jerami Grant for the Detroit Pistons, my model thinks the spread should be Golden State -13.5 (it's actually Golden State -15.0). It'd be a lean on Detroit to cover.
At -1600 odds to win, the Warriors are falling short of 94.1% implied odds. My model has their win chances at 88.9%, and numberFire's has their odds at 90.9%.
If you really want action here, a small-unit look at the over or Detroit to cover are the priorities.