3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 12/2/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Chris Paul Over 3.5 Rebounds (-114)
The Phoenix Suns' point guard has a pretty low rebounding prop tonight (3.5), a mark he should be able to overcome.
Chris Paul has averaged 4.2 rebounds per game this season and has been an efficient rebounder overall. He has secured 59.9% of his rebounding chances, a few ticks better than the NBA average of 57.2%. Paul, then, is averaging 0.13 rebounds per minute, down from his four-year average of 0.15.
If we really want to bump him down (to a league-average conversion rate), he'd be at 0.12 rebounds per minute. Even at that low-water mark for per-minute rebounding, he'd still be projected for 4.2 rebounds across the 33.5 minutes he's projected for, per our model.
That 4.2 mark is actually what numberFire's outright projection is for him, as well.
Using that 4.2-rebound baseline, my prop simulation model sees Paul as 67.1% likely to get to 4 or more rebounds against a Detroit Pistons team that is last in the NBA in rebounding rate over the past 10 games.
Isaiah Stewart Over 8.5 Rebounds (+100)
An even-money prop is always welcomed.
Isaiah Stewart, opposite Paul in that Suns/Pistons game, also has a path to the over on his rebound numbers.
For as good as the Suns are, they are just 18th in rebounding rate over their past 10 games, and this season, they allow 33.4 rebounds per game to frontcourt players. That ranks them 22nd in the NBA.
Stewart has averaged just 7.6 rebounds per game but has been a massive outlier in rebounding rate on a per-chance basis. His rebound conversion rate is only 46.8%, more than 10 percentage points lower than the NBA average. At an average success rate, Stewart would be averaging 9.3 boards per game.
That's close to where numberFire projects Stewart to be today: 9.2 rebounds across 28.9 minutes.
Given that baseline, we should view Stewart to be 57.5% likely to go over his prop.
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+112)
There are a few reasons to like the over on Jaren Jackson Jr.'s three-pointer prop.
The first is that it's a plus-money spot, which is always great when betting props.
The second is that the Oklahoma City Thunder allow 39.6 three-point attempts per game, third-most in the NBA and around 115% as many as the average NBA team. We should, then, be able to anticipate a boost to his three-point attempt rate (0.22 per minute).
Accounting for the matchup and using his four-year three-point shooting efficiency (36.9%), he should be projected for 2.84 makes. If we account for the +112 odds, then we see the value here.
My prop simulation model has Jackson Jr. draining at least 3 treys at a 56.2% probability.
(Tyus Jones is also +112 to make more than 1.5 threes in this same matchup; there's not as much value, but it's another option to explore. I have him as a coin flip to go over, and again, he's +112 to do so.)