3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 11/30/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Pascal Siakam Over 6.5 Rebounds (-110)
Even though the Memphis Grizzlies rank fifth in estimated rebounding rate and ninth in rebounds per 48 minutes allowed to frontcourt players, they aren't really outliers in a rebounding sense.
That bodes well for Pascal Siakam's rebounding prop tonight at just 6.5.
Siakam has averaged 7.2 rebounds on 12.2 rebounding chances per game, which works out to a rebound conversion rate of 59.0%. That's above the NBA average (57.3%) but -- similar to the Grizzlies' rebounding data -- not outlierishly so.
Siakam's rebounding rate (0.22 per minute) is in line with his four-year average (0.21), and even with a tick down to 0.21, he'd get to a projection of 7.5 over his 35.9 projected minutes tonight.
My prop simulation model sees Siakam as 61.2% likely to get to 7-plus rebounds, given his baseline projections at numberFire.
Jordan Poole Over 2.5 Assists (-110)
Jordan Poole is actually an assist regression candidate, but the over on this prop looks good either way.
Poole's Golden State Warriors teammates have scored on 57.3% of his potential assists, which is well above the NBA average of 51.0%. That's part of the benefit of playing on such an efficient offense overall, but let's scale his assist rate back to the NBA average for the sake of argument.
At a 51.0% conversion clip, Poole would still be averaging 3.0 assists per game (down from 3.4 overall).
numberFire's model projects Poole for 3.3 assists tonight over 31.6 minutes. In a game with a total of 221.5 points, things set up well for Poole to convert on at least 3 assists.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 12.5 Points (-110)
This is another regression spot that I'm not going to overreact to.
Tyrese Haliburton's effective field goal percentage is now -- over his career -- 55.6%. This season alone, it's 51.5%. As a rookie, it was 56.9%. He's slumping to start.
His 0.41-points-per-minute rate in his career has dropped to 0.36 this season. That's the difference of 13.3 points across his 32.4 projected minutes and 11.5.
The Los Angeles Lakers have had a league-average defensive rating over their past three games with LeBron James back in the lineup, and in total, numberFire's model is projecting Haliburton for only 11.1 points as a result.
My simulation model anticipates Haliburton, at a baseline of 11.1 points, to score 13 points in only 40.5% of the simulated
realities in which we live results I ran.