3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 11/17/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Richaun Holmes Over 9.5 Rebounds (-112)

Will Richaun Holmes get to double-digit rebounds tonight? The data points to a yes.

Sure, Holmes has averaged 10.2 rebounds per game so far, but there's a lot more to like than just that.

Holmes has converted on 54.8% of his rebounding chances, down from the NBA average of 57.1%. Even while underperforming in that department, he's averaging double-digit boards. You have to like that.

His matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves is elite, too: they're last in the NBA in estimated rebounding rate (47.3%).

In total, Holmes has averaged 0.38 rebounds per minute, which is well above his four-year average of 0.29. However, his rebounding chance rate is elevated this season (and again, he could have even more boards if he converted more often).

numberFire's model projects him for 9.9 rebounds across 31.9 minutes.

My simulation model, using a base of 9.9 rebounds, sees his over odds at 56.6%.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 3.5 Rebounds (-102)

A similar case can be made for Nickeil Alexander-Walker's rebounding expectation for tonight. The juice is more palatable, too.

Alexander-Walker is averaging 4.6 rebounds per game and 0.14 rebounds per minute. That's the same per-minute rate he has posted throughout his career, so he's not overperforming significantly from that angle.

Yes, he is grabbing 60.6% of his rebounding chances (again, better than the NBA average of 57.1%), but it's not a huge outlier rate by any means. At a league-average conversion rate, he'd still be expected for 0.14 rebounds per minute.

At a minutes projection of 32.3 minutes (numberFire's actual projection), he'd be anticipated for 4.6 rebounds across the 0.14-rebound-per-minute rate. That's just the same as his actual projection within numberFire's model. We've been here before; we're going in circles.

My simulation model, then, sees the over as 68.3% likely.

Talen Horton-Tucker Under 15.5 Points (-110)

Talen Horton-Tucker is off to a blistering start in the scoring department across his two games. He's put up 28 and 17 points (22.5 per game) across 32.0 minutes per contest.

So, he should obliterate this over, right? Not quite.

Horton-Tucker has posted a true shooting percentage of 61.6% through two games; his career rate is 54.1%. His effective field goal percentage is 56.1%; his career rate is 50.2%. His three-point field goal percentage is 35.7%; his career rate is 29.1%.

Horton-Tucker is either a significantly more efficient player than he was in his first two seasons or he's due for shooting regression.

Using his projected shot volume tonight within numberFire's model (7.3 two-point attempts, 3.2 three-point attempts, and 2.7 free throw attempts) across his career shooting rates, he should be projected for only 12.6 points.

numberFire's actual projection is 12.5 points.

Even going with the slightly higher rate of 12.6 points, he should be considered 68.4% likely to stay under 16 points, per my simulation model.