3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 11/5/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Doug McDermott Over 10.5 Points (-110)

numberFire's model is liking the over on Doug McDermott's points prop tonight. He's projected for 11.2 points over 27.4 minutes (0.41 points per minute).

While his 9.6-points-per-game rate makes the under seem like a strong play, his projected shot volume (3.3 two-point attempts, 5.0 three-point attempts, and 1.6 free throw attempts) at his four-year shooting averages would lead to a projection of 11.4 points, even a tinge higher than what numberFire's model is projecting outright.

That's before even adjusting for a strong matchup with the Orlando Magic, who rank 27th in estimated defensive rating to start the season.

McDermott, at his 11.2-point baseline, is rating out (via my simulation model) as 57.1% likely to go over. We could bet the over up to -133.

Anthony Edwards Under 24.5 Points (-108)

There's a rematch tonight between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Los Angeles Clippers. The teams just played each other on Wednesday, leading to a 126-115 win for the Clippers.

In that game, Anthony Edwards scored 28 points on 21 shots, and he is averaging a healthy 23.9 points per game this season -- right on par with where the prop is set.

However, when Edwards got to his 28 points on great shot volume, his effective field goal percentage was 59.5%, up more than 10 points from his career rate of 48.8%.

This season, his effective field goal percentage is actually 48.7%, so we can't discount the rookie season at all. The efficiency is the same.

If we use his projected shot volume (11.7 two-point attempts, 8.0 three-point attempts, and 3.8 free throw attempts) at his career efficiency rates, he'd be projected for 22.2 points. numberFire's actual projection for him is 22.6 points.

Even at the higher rate of 22.6, my simulation model would assume Edwards is 57.1% likely to stay under 25 points.

Jaden McDaniels Over 3.5 Rebounds (-118)

Staying with that game, there's an over opportunity for Jaden McDaniels' rebounding total.

Though McDaniels hauled in just a single rebound on Wednesday across nearly 29 minutes of action, numberFire is expecting a...rebound...for him in that stat column.

He's projected for 4.8 boards over 29.6 minutes tonight and is anticipated to get back close to his career average of 0.15 rebounds per minute. That'd be up from 0.03 against them on Wednesday. That won't stick.

The Clippers rank last in estimated rebounding rate (44.8%), so it makes sense that McDaniels springs back with a better rebounding showing tonight.

My simulation model sees McDaniels as 71.9% likely to go over.