NBA

Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for Monday 5/3/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season's data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
WSHIND245.5-4.5125.0107.321111.712
INDWSH245.54.5120.50111.214113.319
ATLPOR236.0-2.5119.25115.110120.129
NOGS236.5-1.5119.0115.69108.46
GSNO236.51.5117.50106.923116.327
PORATL236.02.5116.75120.14114.121
UTAHSA222.5-7.5115.0121.43111.711
MEMNY218.5-3.5111.0110.516105.14
DENLAL218.5-3.0110.75121.72102.01
PHICHI212.5-6.5109.50111.215113.720
LALDEN218.53.0107.75106.924112.314
SAUTAH222.57.5107.50109.117104.23
NYMEM218.53.5107.50108.619109.18
DETORL210.5-1.0105.75103.625115.324
ORLDET210.51.0104.7597.629112.917
CHIPHI212.56.5103.0108.718102.62

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

This table is sorted by matchup in terms of fastest average pace.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Expected
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
IND WSH 101.0 8 104.0 1 102.5 112.2 115.0
WSH IND 104.0 1 101.0 8 102.5 109.5 112.2
GS NO 102.3 5 99.4 13 100.8 111.6 112.5
NO GS 99.4 13 102.3 5 100.8 112.0 112.9
PHI CHI 100.8 10 99.2 14 100.0 112.4 112.4
CHI PHI 99.2 14 100.8 10 100.0 105.7 105.6
SA UTAH 99.0 15 98.9 16 99.0 106.6 105.5
UTAH SA 98.9 16 99.0 15 99.0 116.5 115.3
ORL DET 98.5 18 97.7 23 98.1 105.3 103.3
DET ORL 97.7 23 98.5 18 98.1 109.5 107.4
POR ATL 97.9 20 97.8 21 97.9 117.1 114.6
ATL POR 97.8 21 97.9 20 97.9 117.6 115.1
NY MEM 95.2 30 100.4 11 97.8 108.8 106.5
MEM NY 100.4 11 95.2 30 97.8 107.8 105.4
DEN LAL 96.4 28 97.6 25 97.0 111.8 108.5
LAL DEN 97.6 25 96.4 28 97.0 109.6 106.3

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL POR 1.01 (24) 0.93 (27) 0.83 (8) 0.96 (19) 1.06 (6)
CHI PHI 0.95 (10) 0.87 (16) 0.80 (4) 0.92 (8) 0.95 (2)
DEN LAL 0.98 (20) 0.83 (4) 0.81 (5) 0.89 (6) 1.04 (3)
DET ORL 1.02 (26) 0.94 (30) 0.9 (25) 0.98 (23) 1.07 (7)
GS NO 1.03 (27) 0.88 (22) 0.87 (17) 0.94 (12) 1.11 (15)
IND WSH 1.04 (29) 0.89 (24) 0.89 (23) 0.94 (13) 1.20 (26)
LAL DEN 0.93 (3) 0.84 (5) 0.92 (29) 0.95 (17) 0.94 (1)
MEM NY 0.93 (4) 0.83 (3) 0.82 (6) 0.86 (1) 1.14 (20)
NO GS 0.96 (15) 0.86 (15) 0.87 (16) 0.99 (26) 1.18 (23)
NY MEM 0.95 (9) 0.88 (21) 0.88 (21) 0.91 (7) 1.21 (29)
ORL DET 0.99 (22) 0.89 (23) 0.79 (2) 1.04 (30) 1.11 (16)
PHI CHI 0.96 (14) 0.85 (8) 0.84 (11) 0.94 (15) 1.21 (28)
POR ATL 0.97 (18) 0.85 (7) 0.88 (19) 0.96 (18) 1.08 (8)
SA UTAH 0.94 (6) 0.80 (2) 0.85 (12) 0.88 (3) 1.08 (9)
UTAH SA 0.99 (21) 0.85 (9) 0.86 (13) 0.93 (11) 1.13 (19)
WSH IND 0.96 (12) 0.86 (13) 0.88 (20) 1.00 (27) 1.23 (30)