NBA

Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 1/11/21

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Jan 11th, 2021
Check out each team's offensive and defensive ratings, pace, and FanDuel points allowed -- all adjusted for opponent.

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

Because these stats don't stabilize that quickly, I'll blend 2019-20 and 2020-21 stats.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under 		Spread Implied
Total 		Adj.
Offensive
Rating 		Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating 		Rank
PHX WSH 230.5 -6.5 118.50 113.2 10 114.8 30
POR TOR 230.5 -5.0 117.75 114.1 8 104.5 2
MIL ORL 224.5 -9.0 116.75 114.3 7 108.9 11
IND SAC 225.5 -5.0 115.25 109.5 16 112.2 22
ATL PHI 222.5 -6.5 114.50 103.3 25 107.9 7
TOR POR 230.5 5.0 112.75 111.3 13 113.5 28
WSH PHX 230.5 6.5 112.0 110.3 15 110.0 15
SAC IND 225.5 5.0 110.25 108.9 18 107.3 5
DAL NO 215.5 -3.0 109.25 119.8 1 110.9 17
PHI ATL 222.5 6.5 108.0 110.8 14 113.6 29
CHA NY 211.0 -4.5 107.75 101.8 27 111.8 20
ORL MIL 224.5 9.0 107.75 105.3 23 103.2 1
NO DAL 215.5 3.0 106.25 108.7 19 111.5 18
MEM CLE 206.5 -1.0 103.75 105.6 21 113.3 27
NY CHA 211.0 4.5 103.25 100.2 29 112.2 21
CLE MEM 206.5 1.0 102.75 101.3 28 108.8 10

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

Teams are sorted by fastest adjusted pace. Remember, these still bake in 2019-20 stats.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace 		Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace 		Rank Expected
Pace 		Expected
Offensive
Rating 		Expected
Points
MIL ORL 109.2 1 98.1 23 106.2 113.4 120.5
WSH PHX 108.1 2 101.3 13 108.3 110.5 119.7
NO DAL 107.9 3 99.7 17 106.6 110.4 117.7
ATL PHI 107.5 4 98.9 18 105.4 101.5 106.9
MEM CLE 106.2 7 98.9 19 104.0 109.1 113.4
POR TOR 103.7 9 101.4 12 104.0 108.8 113.1
TOR POR 101.4 12 103.7 9 104.0 115.1 119.7
PHX WSH 101.3 13 108.1 2 108.3 118.2 128.0
DAL NO 99.7 17 107.9 3 106.6 120.9 128.9
PHI ATL 98.9 18 107.5 4 105.4 114.6 120.8
CLE MEM 98.9 19 106.2 7 104.0 100.4 104.3
SAC IND 98.5 21 98.3 22 95.7 106.4 101.8
IND SAC 98.3 22 98.5 21 95.7 111.9 107.1
ORL MIL 98.1 23 109.2 1 106.2 98.7 104.9
NY CHA 98.1 24 92.9 30 89.9 102.6 92.2
CHA NY 92.9 30 98.1 24 89.9 103.8 93.3

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL PHI 0.92 (9) 0.85 (3) 0.83 (8) 0.92 (6) 0.99 (3)
CHA NY 0.96 (17) 0.86 (7) 0.85 (13) 0.94 (12) 1.09 (12)
CLE MEM 0.97 (21) 0.90 (24) 0.87 (16) 1.00 (24) 1.12 (17)
DAL NO 0.98 (24) 0.92 (27) 0.89 (25) 0.98 (18) 1.12 (16)
IND SAC 0.98 (25) 0.91 (26) 0.85 (11) 0.90 (4) 1.07 (8)
MEM CLE 1.03 (30) 0.89 (22) 0.93 (27) 0.98 (19) 1.12 (20)
MIL ORL 0.96 (16) 0.87 (18) 0.87 (15) 0.99 (20) 0.98 (1)
NO DAL 0.89 (2) 0.86 (8) 0.93 (28) 0.94 (10) 1.09 (11)
NY CHA 0.91 (5) 0.89 (20) 0.88 (19) 1.03 (27) 1.20 (29)
ORL MIL 0.93 (13) 0.86 (12) 0.83 (7) 0.95 (14) 1.11 (15)
PHI ATL 0.98 (27) 0.94 (29) 0.96 (30) 1.04 (28) 1.17 (27)
PHX WSH 1.00 (29) 0.91 (25) 0.89 (23) 0.98 (17) 1.20 (30)
POR TOR 0.93 (12) 0.87 (17) 0.89 (22) 0.95 (15) 1.02 (4)
SAC IND 0.92 (8) 0.83 (2) 0.82 (5) 0.92 (7) 1.15 (23)
TOR POR 0.97 (22) 0.89 (21) 0.88 (21) 1.07 (29) 1.11 (14)
WSH PHX 0.92 (6) 0.89 (23) 0.83 (6) 0.95 (13) 1.16 (24)