NBA Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/23/20

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Boston Celtics vs Miami heat

Under 212.0: 1-Star Rating out of 5

After losing large leads in the first two games of their series against the Miami Heat, the Boston Celtics didn't wither away a 15-point lead entering the fourth quarter of Game 3 and held on for their first victory of the series. They'll look to even it up at two games apiece when the Eastern Conference finalists meet again tonight.

If you were to bet on the spread tonight, you might want to think again. Our models are currently projecting a push; the Celtics are favored by 3.0 points, and as of right now, we have them projected to win by exactly that much. As such, we don't have a pick on the line. One bet we are leaning into somewhat, however, is the under.

Boston's offense got off to a hot start in the bubble. They scored 122 or more points in five of their first seven games in Orlando, and the over went 6-1. Since then, however, the under has gone 10-4-1 with the Celtics and their opponents combining for an average of 208.8 points.

The under is 6-3 this season when a team who is down in a series has been favored. The Celtics have played in four of those nine games, with the under going 3-1. The under is 17-12-1 in 2019-20 when the Celtics are coming off a win of more than 10 points.

Our models give the under a 52.5% chance of hitting this evening. That said, with an expected return of just $100.20 for every $100.00 wagered, we have the under marked as just a one-star play. Tonight may be a night where the best bet is to do nothing.