NBA

NBA Betting Guide: Thursday 9/17/20

Ian Goldsmith Sep 17th, 2020

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics

Celtics Moneyline (-138): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Over 208.5: 1-Star Rating out of 5

The Boston Celtics were looking good heading into the fourth quarter of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. However, a 12-point lead wasn't enough to put away the Miami Heat, who outscored the Celtics 35-23 in the final frame and eked out a three-point overtime win. The Celtics are favorites this evening as they look to even the series, and our models project them to do just that.

Boston has won five out of their past six games as favorites following games that went into overtime. They've won their past four games coming off a loss in which they and their opponents have combined for more than 230 points. The over has gone 3-1 in those contests.

The Celtics have gone 18-9 this season after losses, going 11-3 in their past 14 such contests. The over is 14-12-1 in games after the Celtics have lost. They've gone 28-11 as favorites when playing on the same amount of rest as their opponents.

The Heat have won just three of 10 contests following overtime games this season. The over has gone 8-2 in those games, which have seen an average of 232.0 points scored. The Heat are 8-13 this season as underdogs following a win, though they have won their past four in that situation.

While the over is just 1-3 this season when the Celtics and Heat have clashed, the conference finalists have combined for more than tonight's total in three of those four games. The Heat are .500 this season following games in which they've downed at least 15 threes. The Celtics have gone 18-6 in the same situation.

Our models have two one-star plays from tonight's Game 2: the Celtics moneyline and the over. We give the Celtics a 61.2% chance of tying the series tonight, and we give the over a 54.7% chance of hitting.