NBA Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/2/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Thunder +5.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
After a thrilling Game 7 last night between the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz, the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder will clash tonight to finalize the Western Conference Semifinal bracket. The Thunder won by four points on Monday night to even the series at three games apiece, but they find themselves as 5.5-point underdogs tonight as they look to move on to the second round.
Oklahoma City now holds a 5-4 lead against the Rockets in the season series, going 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in those contests. History does not favor them to expand that lead. Game 7 underdogs of more than 5.0 points have won just 1 out of their past 14 games. Those same underdogs, however, have gone 5-2 ATS in their past seven such contests.
The Thunder are now 9-3 ATS this season as more than 5.0-point underdogs, covering by an average of 2.6 points. Houston is on a 1-5 ATS stretch when favored by more than 5.0 points, going 2-4 straight up in those contests.
The Rockets are on an 0-4 ATS streak as favorites in games with totals under 220.0 points. Oklahoma City is now 12-4-1 as underdogs when the total has been under 220.0. They are on a 7-0-1 stretch in those contests.
The Rockets have covered the spread in just 2 of their past 11 contests when they and their opponents have played on one day of rest. They're on a 1-5 ATS stretch after a loss off a win. They're 4-8 ATS as favorites in such contests this season. They've now lost five in a row in the sixth or seventh game of a series.
Favorites in this year's postseason have failed to cover the spread in five of their past seven games when the total has been set under 220.0 points.
numberFire's models do project the Thunder to lose tonight by an average of 1.6 points. That said, they also give them a 62.2% chance of covering the 5.5-point spread. With an expected return of $118.70 on a $100 bet, we mark it as a three-star play.