NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 9/1/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jamal Murray, Over 31.5 Points (-102)
Jamal Murray has continued to play the best basketball of his career and easily the most incredible scoring streak over three games. For the Denver Nuggets, Murray has averaged 34 points per game in the series and scored 36 or more in four-of-six games versus the Jazz. Murray's on such a hot streak scoring that he's hitting 56.1% from the field, 54.4% from three, and 79.6% from the series's free-throw line. He's connecting on 5.2 triples per game on 9.0 attempts and has shot 20 or more field goals in four of the six games.
Murray has played 40-plus minutes in three-straight games and four of six for the Nuggets. When he's played 40 or more minutes in the regular season, he's averaged 30 points per game, and in the four postseason games of 40-plus minutes, he averaged 44.5 points per game. Denver allows 119.3 points per game, ranking 13th out of 16th in the postseason. This series has been the second-highest scoring matchup of the first round and fresh off a career-high 9 made three-pointers, the second time he's done it in this series, Murray is ready to lead the Nuggets to a third-straight victory. numberFire's model predicts Murray to score 31.7 points in 40 minutes.
Donovan Mitchell, Over 33.5 Points (-106)
Donovan Mitchell has been on a scoring tear too, and this has been the best series by far, mainly because of Mitchell and Murray. The two can't be stopped on the offensive end, and Mitchell has averaged 38.7 points per game in the six-game series. He's played at least 38 minutes over the last three games and scored 30 or more in all three, and 30 or more in five-of-six. He's gone over 34 points in three-of-six games, recording 44, 51, and 57 in the three he did and 20, 30, and 30 in the three he didn't.
The Nuggets allow 119.3 points per game in the postseason, 14th out of 16th, and the worst three-point percentage to opponents (44.9%). Mitchell has knocked down four or more three-pointers in five-of-six games and attempted 23 or more field-goals in four games. He's getting the volume to put up 30-40 points every night, and in the third consecutive must-win game for the Jazz, Mitchell is undoubtedly going to leave it all out on the court. numberFire's model projects Mitchell to record 30.9 points in 39 minutes, but I'd expect a 40-minute effort from him. When he does play 40 or more minutes, Mitchell averaged 40.5 points in the regular-season and 50.5 in the postseason in 2019-20.