3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 8/25/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kawhi Leonard, Over 31.5 Points (-104)
Kawhi Leonard has averaged 33 points per game in the series, netting 29, 35, 36, and 32 in that order. Leonard missed the game-winner to close out regulation in Game 4, and with a pivotal Game 5 to go up or down 3-2, I expect Leonard to take over. The Dallas Mavericks are allowing the third-most points per game (123.8) in the postseason as well as the fourth-most made field goals (43.5).
Paul George has scored just 34 combined points since his Game 1 outburst of 27 points. Louis Williams racked up 36 in his previous game, but besides that, Leonard has led the Clippers in scoring three straight games, and chances are, he will make it four-of-five after this Game 5 goes final. When he plays between 30 and 39 minutes on the season, Kawhi is averaging 28.1 points per game, and he's averaging 41.3 minutes this series.
numberFire's model projects Leonard to score 31.3 points in Game 5.
Luka Doncic, Over 51.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-106)
Luka Doncic has been making history left and right in this series, and without Kristaps Porzingis in the previous game, Luka managed to lead the Mavs to an overtime victory on his game-winning shot. Doncic has surpassed this points, rebounds and assists (PRA) total in Games 1 and 4 versus the Clippers, and in Game 3, he triple-doubled but fell well short of this mark. The Clippers are giving up 123.5 points per game in this series, the fourth-most in the postseason. They are also allowing the Mavs to shoot 49.2% from the field and 38.4% from deep.
In the four-game series, Doncic is averaging 31.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 9.8 assists over 35 minutes. When Doncic plays between 30 and 39 minutes, he averages 29.5 points, 9.2 assists, and 9.0 rebounds on the season, and when he surpasses 40 minutes played, his numbers jump to 34.3 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 11.3 assists.
We have Doncic's stat line at 32.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 9.5 assists in 37 minutes, which is right even with this line, but as we've seen, he has the ability to get past the over here.
Donovan Mitchell, Over 27.5 Points (-108)
Donovan Mitchell has been on a hot streak in the postseason, notching a pair of 50-point games in the first round. Mitchell scored 51 in Game 4 and 57 in Game 1, both victories for the Utah Jazz. He has helped put Utah up 3-1 over the Nuggets, and it seems that no one on Denver can guard him or anyone else. Denver is allowing 125.5 points per game, the second-most in the postseason, and Mitchell has torched them for 20, 30, 51, and 57.
Mitchell has made four or more three-pointers and shot 55% or better from the field in three of four games in this series. He's played at least 34 minutes in each of those three games in which he scored 30 or more, and with Game 5 being a potential series-closing game for the Jazz, Mitchell could surpass 40 minutes tonight. When he plays between 30-39 minutes, he's averaging 24.5 points per game on the season, and when he surpasses 40 minutes, that average skyrockets to 40.5.
numberFire's model pegs Mitchell to score 26.2 points in 37 minutes, but I look for him to get to 28-plus points today.