3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 7/30/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Rudy Gobert, Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds (-112)
Rudy Gobert has averaged 16.5 rebounds and 13.0 points per game this year in two matchups with the New Orleans Pelicans, the team he takes on tonight. He grabbed 14 boards or more in both games, and he was on a tear to end exhibition play. He started with a six-rebound and five-point performance in his debut then followed up that with a 21-point and eight-rebound game in 23 minutes. In his final game, he scored 20 points with seven rebounds over 22 minutes. In addition to surpassing 28 combined points and rebounds in his last two exhibition games, he did it versus the Pels in nine consecutive games, including both of the 2019-20 meetings.
The Pelicans allow the eighth-most rebounds per game to power forwards (11.65) and the 15th-most to centers (15.33). With his success versus the Pelicans, he's an obvious choice to go over in points (15.5) or rebounds (12.5) for +100 odds or better. The Pelicans rank fourth in rebounds per game (47.0) but sit 16th with 45.1 boards allowed to their opponents. Gobert is shooting a career-high of 69.2% from the field this year, good enough for second-best in the league.
Gobert also posts a career-high mark with a 70% true shooting percentage, which checks in fourte in the league while his defensive rebounding percentage (27.6%) is sixth overall. In the first game back, he should see well over 30 minutes of action, and with Bojan Bogdanovic out with an injury, Gobert's usage rate may increase a bit.
numberFire's model projects Gobert to hit the over tonight on this combined points and boards prop as we forecast him for 15.5 points and 14.0 rebounds in the opening game of the bubble.
Brandon Ingram, Over 22.5 Points (-116)
Brandon Ingram has the advantage of playing the Utah Jazz three times already this season. Ingram has found phenomenal success scoring versus the Jazz, averaging 39 points per game against them. He's scored 33, 36, and a career-high 49 points versus the Jazz this season, giving them buckets from everywhere.
Ingram shot 52% from the field (39 for 75) over those three games and hit at least three triples in each on 47.6% shooting from downtown (10/21). In addition to his range from deep, he made 29 of 33 free throws (87.8%) with two perfect games plus a 16-of-20 performance in the third and final meeting. The lowest team point total for the Pels in the first three games was 120, which came in the first meeting, and if both teams can get the offense going, Ingram is a candidate to find his groove and surpass his over total.
It is worth mentioning that Zion Williamson didn't play in any of those three games against Utah. Zion may be able to play tonight. But Ingram's usage rate isn't too different with (28.6%) or without (26.8%) Zion on the floor, per NBAWowy.
Ingram played 10 minutes in the team's first exhibition game, scoring 12 points on 4-of-7 shooting, including 3-of-5 from deep. In his final contest versus the Milwaukee Bucks, Ingram scored 14 points on 2-for-6 shooting from deep with three assists and three rebounds in 20 minutes. The Pelicans offense scored 99, 119, and 124 in three exhibition games without Williamson, and with Williamson, they are the league's highest-scoring team at 120.1 points per game. If Williamson is rusty, Ingram may receive an uptick in shot attempts and could lead the Pelicans in scoring. numberFire's model predicts Ingram to narrowly hit the over here with 22.6 points tonight.
Anthony Davis, Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)
The Los Angeles Lakers face the Los Angeles Clippers on the opening nightcap in Orlando. Of the better props in this non-friendly prop night is Anthony Davis' points and rebound total. It's at 34.5, and Davis has averaged 26.3 points and 7.3 rebounds in three games versus the Clippers this season. In his first two games against the Clips, Davis averaged 24.5 points and 7.5 rebounds, but in the final meeting before the league's hiatus, Davis scored 30 points and grabbed seven rebounds.
The Clippers allowed the 18th-most rebounds per game (45.5) and give up the 13th-most points (109.7). The Lakers haven't scored more than 42 points in the paint versus the Clippers sixth-ranked paint defense (44.9) in all three games, so Davis will have to bring his jumper. In his two scrimmages, we saw Davis' production capabilities in his limited minutes. During the first game, he played 15 minutes and scored 12 points on 5-of-7 shooting (71.4%) and one rebound. In the second and final game, he scored 9 points on 2-of-3 shooting (66.67%) and grabbed 10 rebounds in 9 minutes.
The Clips rank 14th in points per game allowed to centers (21.3), and they concede the third-most rebounds per game (16.3) to the position. Versus power forwards, they are worse -- the ninth-most points per game (21.26) and 10th-most in rebounds (10.7).
In the first night back, Davis -- who is expected to play through an eye injury -- is projected to record 27.7 points and 10.5 rebounds by numberFire's model. That 37.7 total would hit the over with some cushion.