3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 2/12/20
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kendrick Nunn, Under 13.5 Points
Kendrick Nunn has averaged 9.5 points over his last six games and scored single digits in four of those contests. With Jimmy Butler returning to the lineup, Nunn's touches and his 25.01% usage rating will be reduced for the night.
The Miami Heat are playing their fourth game in six days, and Nunn is certainly feeling the effects. Nunn has gone 12 for 50 (24%) from the field during this six-game stretch. The last opponent of this five-game west coast trip is the Utah Jazz, and they are the best defensive team Miami will face over this span.
Utah ranks eighth in defensive net rating (107.7), and held Nunn to 10 points in Miami's December home victory. Nunn is averaging 14.3 points in 28 road games this season, compared to 16.9 points in 22 home games.
Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace, with Utah ranked 19th (99.31) and Miami ranked 26th (98.32). This is looking like a potential slower-paced game, and that's the biggest factor in Nunn's over/under tonight. The Heat have averaged 107.5 points on this five-game road trip, and the last meeting between the two teams ended 107-104.
Devin Booker, Over 27.5 Points
The good news for Booker is his last game before the break is at home versus the Golden State Warriors. Golden State allows the second-most points per game to shooting guards (24.91), the fifth-most assists (5.07), and the most made three-pointers (4.00) to put the cherry on top. Booker scored 31 and 34 points on the Warriors in the first two meetings of the season.
Both teams are ranked in the top 11 in pace, yet they both rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive net rating and defensive net rating. The Warriors have allowed an average of 119.0 points in their two games since trading for Andrew Wiggins, while the Suns have allowed 121.5 points per game in their last two.
numberFire's projections peg Booker for 25.2 points versus the Warriors, but that's with Deandre Ayton as questionable. If Ayton remains sidelined versus Golden State, back Booker's over on points.
Trae Young, Over 31.5 Points
Trae Young has recorded 32.2 points over the last five games, and he's averaged 30.3 points in 15 games versus Eastern Conference teams under a .500 winning percentage. In the last 10 games, he's made nine or more shot attempts in six, averaging 41 points in those games.
In Young's earlier meeting with the Cleveland Cavaliers this season, he scored 30 and went 9 for 21 from the field (42.9%). The Cavaliers allow the fifth-most points to point guards (25.14) and rank 18th in made three-pointers allowed per game (2.69).
The Atlanta Hawks have averaged 122 points per game in their last five, while the Cavs have allowed 125.4 per game in their last five. Expect a lot of points, as Atlanta is ranked fourth in pace factor (105.8) and Cleveland is ranked 19th (101.1).
numberFire's model projects Young to record 28.4 points on 8.7 made field goals in 35.11 minutes. In the 10 games this season Young has recorded eight or nine made field goals, he's scored 29.9 points per game. That's enough to push the over here for me.