3 NBA Prop Bets to Target on 5/31/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the NBA. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Draymond Green scores AT LEAST 11 points (-114)
He scored at least 11 points in four of the last five games in the Western Conference Finals despite attempting double-digit field goals in only one of those contests. The way the Warriors tend to game plan against the Cleveland Cavaliers also seems to increase Green's offensive volume.
He attempted 11 and 14 field goal attempts in the two regular season meetings between these teams, and while this Cavs squad is obviously very different from the one that played Golden State in the finals last year, Green saw a significant workload in that series, too, averaging 11.0 field goal attempts (and 11.0 points) per game.
Getting 11 as a win on this bet, rather than a push if it were an over/under, makes it particularly appealing at this price.
George Hill scores UNDER 10 points (-114)
George Hill has finished with single-digit scoring numbers in four of his last seven games, averaging only 9.6 per night in that stretch. He wasn't getting up much volume in that time, either, averaging 7.3 field goal attempts per game.
Since joining the Cavs, he has averaged 12.2 points per-36 minutes, but his playoff workload hasn't put him up near that mark very often as he's logged at least 36 minutes in only 2 of his 15 postseason games.
Part of Hill's lack of scoring and workload has come from the fact that Cleveland has been part of a bunch of blowouts so far. They have had five games end with margins of victory higher than 10, and in those contests, Hill has only cracked 30 minutes only once.
The Warriors are 12.5-point favorites in Game 1, and we know Hill sees less minutes in blowouts. Plus, even if this ends up being a close game, there's a decent shot of the under hitting.
Stephen Curry makes AT LEAST 5 3-pointers (-122)
Stephen Curry has hit at least 5 triples in four of his last six games. He's attempted at least 10 treys in all four of those games in which he made at least 4, and he's averaging 10.6 attempts per game in that five-game stretch.
We can expect even better volume from Curry in this series as the Cavs allowed opponents the third-most 3-point attempts per 100 possessions and second-most per game in the regular season, while also conceding a top-10 3-point percentage.
Curry has been fairly cold from 3-point range in the postseason, hitting from beyond the arc at a 38.5% clip. Those struggles likely explain why this bet is as under-priced as it is, but with a 42.3% 3-point percentage in the regular season and a plus matchup tonight, it wouldn't be surprising to see Steph fill it up from long-range.