NBA Market Share Report: Which Clipper Benefits Most From Chris Paul's Injury?
Welcome back to another edition of the weekly NBA Market Share Report.
Last week, we talked about a power forward in Washington who’s well worth a look, as well as a couple of Pistons worth targeting. If you happened to miss it, be sure to jump back and take look.
Let us hoop!
Gone may be the quickness, agility, and vertical leap, but that doesn’t stop Zach Randolph from being one of the craftiest 35-year old big dudes in the league. Now in his 16th NBA season, Randolph is experiencing a slight decrease in minutes, understandably par for the course, and even so, Z-Bo is still grinding out efficient production for us daily fantasy owners.
With his season average sitting at 23 minutes per game, Randolph has had an uptick in recent weeks, as he’s averaged 26 minutes a night over his last 12 games. Over that span, he’s missed double-digit scoring only once (Wednesday night in Washington) and has logged at least eight rebounds in eight of those games, helping to carve out a decent lineup option for a reasonable price.
We’ve seen his salary creep up to $6,000 a couple times over the past few games, but he’s generally a low(er) priced option with an average salary of $5,725 over his last 12 games. He’s scored at least 30 FanDuel points in half of those games, including five-times value (five fantasy points per $1,000 in salary) in seven outings and six-times value in four of them.
Considering Randolph has put up more 30-point showings over the past three weeks than he did the previous 25 games he played in to start the season, there’s good reason to believe this lukewarm heater eventually falls back in line, but there’s really no telling when that will be. In the meantime, rostering Z-Bo for less than $6,000 can typically reward you with a decent payoff at your second power forward spot.
Life Without CP3
With Chris Paul set to miss the next six to eight weeks after tearing a ligament in his thumb on Monday, the Clippers will have their work cut out for them as they attempt to lessen the blow of losing their their engine.
While the overall loss of fantasy production itself may not add up to be a lot, we can expect a little less on offense from a guy like DeAndre Jordan and maybe J.J. Redick to an extent. Although there’s a chance we see a volume increase for a shooter like Redick, neither his nor Jordan’s offensive game would appear to benefit from losing a top-tier facilitator like Paul.
Meanwhile, a player like Blake Griffin -- who we may see return to action early next month -- could see an increased role as both a passer and scorer. According to Rotoviz's Game Splits App, Griffin averages about nine percent more FanDuel points per game without CP3, thanks to a few more buckets and a couple more assists a night.
The guys we’re really interested in, however, are those asked to help directly make up for Paul’s play. In reality, that’s impossible. But with the loss of Paul and his 30 minutes a game, second-unit guards like Austin Rivers, Raymond Felton, and Jamal Crawford are those likely to weather the storm.
For a guy who’s never had trouble scoring the basketball, Jamal Crawford should see some positive gains with more minutes, and assuming head coach Doc Rivers leans on him a bit for creativity, we may benefit from increased assist numbers as well.
Austin Rivers should see more action, which is immediately intriguing due to past games this season where he’s put up nice totals, albeit inconsistently, with more minutes. His salary may not be in the mid-$4,000 range anymore, but his 28 FanDuel points per game over his last six at least tells us he can do some things when the matchup permits.
And then there’s Raymond Felton, the guy I’m probably most intrigued with moving forward. He’s now seen five starts since December while filling in for the injured Paul, and he’s averaging 36 minutes and 28 FanDuel points per game in those contests. He too will see a salary increase somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,100 and he probably gets my vote amongst the three for ‘Least Likely to Disappoint You to the Point of Ruining Your Lineup and Therefore Your Entire Night’ based on his production of late.
Although Rivers likely packs the most upside among the trio of bench guards, Felton looks to be the steadiest, with Crawford serving as the wild card in certain spots if he can ever find his shot.
Get well soon, Chris Paul.
And that'll do it for this week. Remember to always add bacon and tomato to your grilled cheese sandwiches because it makes the classic infinitely more enjoyable. See ya next week.