How Much Is Derrick Rose Actually Worth?
According to reports, despite his disappearance earlier this week, New York Knicks point guard Derrick Rose will enter free agency this summer in search of a max contract worth $150 million over five years.
For comparison purposes, that type of contract would mark an increase of nearly $10 million from Rose's current price tag of $21.3 million in 2016-17. And, at this time, that would be roughly $5.5 million more than Carmelo Anthony's current salary and would rank second behind only LeBron James' yearly salary.
We know the NBA market is on the up. Salaries are getting more and more lucrative for all players -- not just the stars we all know and love. But, the King of the league is making just over $30 million right now, so how could anyone, let alone Rose, be worth that much?
Let's try to answer two questions: Just how crazy is Rose's free agency goal? And what is his real worth?
In 35 of the New York Knicks' 40 games so far this season, Rose has averaged 17.5 points, 4.4 assists and 3.9 rebounds over 32 minutes per game.
So, while Rose has been relatively durable, he has been a far cry from where he was at earlier in his career when he won the MVP in 2010-11.
He's not the same MVP-caliber player he once was -- we all know that by now. The problem is that, in today's NBA, even the MVP Rose wasn't worth that much.
Rose's nERD -- our player ranking that measures a player's total contribution over course of a season, based on efficiency -- of 14.0 that season would have placed him seventh a year ago and sixth among all players in 2010-11.
In his MVP season, the five players ahead of him by nERD had an average salary of $15.6 million, which constituted 26.9% of the $58 million salary cap.
Today, if we multiply in order to adjust for the drastic jump in the salary cap, that average jumps to $25.3 million. Therefore, if you wanted to estimate how much MVP Rose was worth, it would be around, if not less than, $25 million in today's NBA.
That was then; this is now. And now Rose has a -2.5 nERD. He's nowhere close to his efficiency and value from 2010-11.
No wonder Rose has seen his minutes -- particularly, in the fourth quarter -- drop off as of late. His backup, Brandon Jennings, has been slightly better than Rose this season with a nERD of -2.1.
Even if -- and that's a big if -- we were blind to Rose's numerous injuries and the resulting decline in explosiveness and efficiency, the Rose we first came to know and love wouldn't be worth top dollar this offseason.
Not a Lot
In case that wasn't enough to convince you, Rose's exact worth today is a small percentage of what he's hoping for in a max deal.
Take a look at which players share the same nERD as Rose and how much they're being paid in 2016-17.
|Player||Salary (in Millions)|
The average compensation of these five players is $5.18 million per year. And, in case you haven't noticed, none of these players receive anywhere near the same love as Rose. There's actually a very prominent trend that emerges from them, too. With the exception of Ben McLemore, the other four players are all backup point guards.
Matthew Dellavedova was signed on to be a starter in Milwaukee, but he was a backup to Kyrie Irving last year and has now taken a backseat to Malcolm Brogdon, who took over the starting spot with Delly hurt and rather ineffective prior to his injury. The others are all locked in as backup floor generals with their respective teams.
That's probably telling us something.
Even if that salary is taken in relation to next year's projected cap of $102 million, compared to this year's cap of $94 million, the average is just $5.62 million. No offense to the one-time league MVP, but Rose is off by roughly $25 million. His worth is that of a backup point guard, something that he should possibly consider in order to extend his career in coming years.
And so it's time to get real, Derrick. If you're waiting around for a max deal, it's going to be one long summer for you.