NBA Market Share Report: Heat Check on Second-Tier Shooting Guards
Welcome back for another edition of the weekly NBA Market Share Report, and Happy New Year!
Last week, we kept pace with the holiday shopping spirit and talked bargain big men. If you were busy ringing in 2017 and happened to miss it, feel free to swing back around and take a look.
This week, we'll check in on the other shooting guards, another Sixth Man of the Year candidate providing good value (remember we talked about Sweet Lou, too!), and we sift through all the talent in Golden State in order to not forget about our favorite animated leg-swinging big man.
New year, new me, new you, new hoops!
Not Necessarily Bearded or Freakish
It’s been a pretty easy shopping list at shooting guard so far this season -- James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and then everyone else. But an easy shopping list doesn’t always mean an easy purchase. Because The Beard and Greek Freak will typically cost you a minimum of $10,000, you’re suddenly looking elsewhere on nights when you’re not committed to paying up for the position.
After Harden and Antetokounmpo, six other shooting guards are averaging better than 30 FanDuel points a night -- DeMar DeRozan, C.J. McCollum, Nicolas Batum, Bradley Beal, Dwyane Wade, and Avery Bradley.
Here’s a look at those six guys over their last 10 games, including average FanDuel salary, average FanDuel points per game, and their value over that span in the form of dollars per point scored.
|Player||Avg. Salary (L10)||Avg. FD Points (L10)||$/Point Scored (L10)|
The most obvious observation is the Batum resurgence, as he’s putting up awesome numbers as the second-in-command in Charlotte alongside Kemba Walker. We’ve seen his salary creep up into the high $7,000 range and even $8,000 over his past few games, which despite his versatility, could lead to lessened value for a guy who totes the lowest usage rate (21.4) of the six. But for the right number, Batum can be a valuable piece of your roster.
The other impressive number is that of McCollum and his recent spike in the absence of Damian Lillard. He’s reached at least 30 points in each of his last five games, including 111 points in a two-game stretch prior to Lillard’s return Thursday night when he still managed 42 FanDuel points in a victory over the Los Angeles Lakers.
CJ McCollum is a bad man pic.twitter.com/IF3CRhl51y
— BBALLBREAKDOWN (@bballbreakdown) January 5, 2017
As much as we’d like to see those high outputs remain, McCollum is averaging eight fewer fantasy points per game when Lillard plays as opposed to when he doesn’t, according to RotoViz. That said, if we’re gifted a small salary drop upon Lillard’s return, we’re still provided the opportunity to ride the McCollum wave at a friendly price point.
As for the others -- and as much as I love DeRozan’s run this season -- Beal seems to have found a pretty sweet groove as of late. He’s increased his scoring from 17 points per game last season to 22 so far this season, and he’s launching seven three-pointers a game. Health permitting, Beal is a nice option on most nights as a guy who gets plenty of opportunity for usually less than $7,000 salary.
And that’s your quick-hitter two-guard heat map sort of thing.
Digging for Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets rank in the top-10 in both pace (97.5) and offensive rating (109.8), so the team in general can serve as a feasible target shy of an anticipated blowout scenario.
While riding Nikola Jokic is the new fun thing to do (as we keep an eye on that rising salary), and taking swings with Gary Harris and Will Barton can have its moments, turning to Wilson Chandler may serve as your best payoff when it comes to rostering Nuggets.
In just over 31 minutes a night (only he and Danilo Gallinari play 30-plus minutes), Chandler is putting up 27.6 FanDuel points per game thanks to a versatile skill set that gives us seven rebounds a game on one end, and 16 points on a team-high 14 shots a night (nearly five of which are from three-point land) on the other.
Wilson Chandler pacing #MileHighBasketball w/ 13p. They lead #TrueToAtlanta 55-51 at half on #NBA LP. Millsap: 11p. pic.twitter.com/fkRQJcc0j5
— ESPN (@NBA_FormulaOne) December 25, 2016
Like most Nuggets players, consistency is a concern. Chandler has reached at least 30 FanDuel points in five of his last 10 games, but he’s also thrown up a couple sub-20-point performances, as well as a six-point dud against the Clippers in a Christmas hangover game.
By the way, where does Chandler’s tattoos rank amongst current active players? Assuming Birdman and James Johnson are in the running, I think Chandler has a pretty nice shot at taking the cake.
Forgot About Dray
The addition of Kevin Durant undoubtedly changed the landscape for the Golden State Warriors heading into this season, and whether or not that altered your thinking on what it means to roster Golden State players this fantasy season, it’s important we don’t make the mistake of forgetting Draymond Green.
A slight dip in shots has led to a slight dip in scoring -- something we all saw coming, but that slight dip is less than three FanDuel points per game off his production from last season. Per usual, Green’s versatility is the meat and potatoes of his nightly fantasy output, and those main courses remain: 9 rebounds, 2 steals, a team-leading 8 assists, and 1 block a night.
It’s the kind of work that has solidified him as a top-five power forward option through December, as his 37 FanDuel points per game trail only Anthony Davis (freak show), Blake Griffin (39.7), and Kevin Love (38.4).
Draymond Green finds Livingston on @csnauthentic. #NBAVote pic.twitter.com/odIJZsWFTQ
— GoldenStateWarriors (@warriors) January 5, 2017
And best of all, Green can often be found for less than $8,000, which also makes him one of the position's top values. His average salary has been $7,920 over his last 10 games, and he’s put up at least 40 points in five of those outings.
With so many options to choose from on a team that does everything so well, we can go with a Warriors player at almost any position (sorry, ZaZa). For that reason, the game type in which we choose to play helps dictate who we target. While Green may not be a great tournament play over guys like Durant and Stephen Curry, he can serve as an efficient plug in cash game lineups.
And that'll do it for this week. Remember to always avoid putting cream and/or sugar in your coffee because that's gross and it ruins things. See ya next time!