Staff NBA Award Predictions: MVP, Rookie of the Year, and More

Rookie of the Year

Writers' Perspective: Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks

Our MVP and DPOY votes were close. The same cannot be said for our rookie of the year voting. Jabari Parker ripped through the competition. He doubled up Nerlens Noel, the second-place finisher. Andrew Wiggins failed to get one vote (even with some Wiggins-lovers among the staff). Parker could have a great rookie season in Milwaukee. He shouldn't expect to win many games, but he should be the focal point of an up-and-down offense.

We think, if anyone does, Noel has the best chance to beat out Parker for the ROY award. Their uptempo style could let him rack up counting stats, like points, blocks, and rebounds. As for Wiggins, it did surprise me that he didn't receive one vote, but he might be the best talent in the draft. There's no way you can count him out - even if he flew under our radar in our preseason predictions.

Numbers Perspective: Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic

Now, it is very hard to predict what rookies may truly bring in their first year in the league. There's nothing to go off but college numbers and projected usage and minutes. The competition's totally different in college and depending on what conference it is, the numbers can be really skewed. So, in my opinion, there's only one good set of numbers that can help in this analysis - and that's the recent history of the award.

In surveying the last ten years of award winners, I noticed that a trend has developed. Since Chris Paul's rookie season in 2005, seven out of the last nine awards have gone to guards. And the last three years, the award has gone to three point guards. So, it's clear that guards have had the percentages in their favor as of late. That means that guys like Parker and Noel seem to be at a disadvantage while guys like Wiggins, Marcus Smart, and Elfrid Payton are at an advantage.

Since scoring point guards have taken the bacon three years running, this favors Payton over the likes of Wiggins and Smart. Payton will play a lot of point guard this year - especially with Victor Oladipo sidelined to start out the season. He will look to do a lot of scoring in the backcourt for the Magic as well. Payton averaged 19 points per game on 50% shooting from the floor just a year ago at UL-Lafayette. It's definitely a sleeper pick, but the odds are in Payton's favor.