Staff NBA Award Predictions: MVP, Rookie of the Year, and More

Defensive Player of the Year

Writers' Perspective: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans

This time it's not the numbers. We like Anthony Davis to win his first Defensive Player of the Year award. But this was just as close as the MVP prediction. The first- and third-place vote-getters were only separated by two votes. The run for the Defensive Player of the Year award could be extremely competitive throughout the year as a result. It's not hard to see why.

Our top three consists of two pure centers in Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan along with Davis, a power forward/center with rim-protecting ability. We love the paint protectors for this award, and we fully expect one of these three shot-blocking machines to take home the prize when all is said and done. We give the Brow the edge going into the season, but it will be exciting to watch this race take shape as the year goes on.

Numbers Perspective: Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets

First of all, I've narrowed down such a wide field of options to the main three mentioned above. But, numberFire's player projections see it as a very close race. While Davis is projected for a ridiculous 222 blocks, 806 rebounds and 101 steals, Howard is projected to have 153 blocks, 846 rebounds and 65 steals. We project Jordan to have 172 blocks, 1040 rebounds and 58 steals. While Davis has blocks and steals, Jordan and Howard have rebounds. For Jordan, he is set to completely dominate the defensive boards with nearly 200 more than Howard and over 200 more than Davis. So, where do we go from here?

Let's look at some more numbers. These numbers favor Jordan and Howard over Davis. Last year, Davis posted a solid 104 defensive rating. However, Howard had his worst rating (101) since his second year in the league while Jordan was dominant with a 98 rating. Howard's rating is trending down lately and Jordan's is trending up under Doc Rivers, as evidenced by his 5.8 win shares last season. Based on this, it's down to Howard and Jordan.

But we must look at outside factors in order to declare ourselves a winner. Last year, the Rockets had a team defensive rating of 106. The Clippers bested the Rockets with a rating of 104. There have been transactions on each team since then though, ones that may influence such a tight DPOY race.

The Rockets essentially exchanged Chandler Parsons for Trevor Ariza and the Clips picked up Spencer Hawes. Hawes may take some valuable minutes off of Jordan as the season goes on, therefore deflating his numbers. As for Ariza, he will be an upgrade to Parsons on defense as Ariza earned a defensive rating of 104 while Parsons managed a mediocre 108 last year. For this reason, I think the numbers will favor Howard most of all by season's end.