3 NBA DraftKings Studs to Target on 2/14/18
Stephen Curry, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors
DraftKings Salary: $9,300
On a massive slate like today's, it is critically important to be aware of pricing discrepancies. You don't want to just target good values -- you really need to focus in on finding the optimal values. It is often tough to do so on your own, so looking to a projection system can be very helpful. Luckily, we've got you covered there.
A quick look at our projections will show that both Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant ($9,400) are underpriced on DraftKings today. Curry comes at a $300 discount from FanDuel and Durant can be had for $800 cheaper on DraftKings. Not only that, but they are the only two dudes priced above $8,000 who are expected to reach five-times value at their respecitve price points. Curry's value (5.38) is especially apparent, as the next-highest priced player with a value rating that high is Louis Williams -- all the way down at $6,800. It is rare to find a stud with this type of a value projection.
It seems like the Golden State Warriors are often overlooked when it comes to DFS because they seem to always be involved in projected blowouts. That is not the case tonight, as they travel to Portland to take on a stingy Portland Trail Blazers squad. The combination of the road trip and the potential absence of Draymond Green makes this game much more likely to remain competitive, which is reflected in the 5.5-point spread.
Counting the postseason, Curry has faced Portland 13 times since the beginning of the 2016 season, so we have a fairly large sample size of how he generally fares against Damian Lillard. Several of those contests have resulted in blowouts, but because Vegas expects this game to remain close, we're just going to examine the nine games in which Curry played at least 30 minutes. In those games, Curry has averaged 55.2 DraftKings points and has topped 60 DraftKings points four times, as Lillard and the Blazers have simply had no answer for him.
The other factor working in Curry's favor is the game script. His Warriors carry the third-highest implied team total on the slate (115.5 points), and the over/under in this one is the second highest. In 11 other games in which there was at least a 225-point over/under and the Warriors were single-digit favorites, Curry has averaged 49 DraftKings points. He needs just 46.5 at this price tag, which is plenty doable in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the night.
