Re-Drafting the 2012 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics

5 Busts

Given the quality of talent that was selected behind them, these five are some of the most disappointing draft picks in recent memory.

Dion Waiters has always been a perplexing figure. A supremely talented scorer, Waiters has been unable to put it all together in the NBA. In his first two seasons with a LeBron-less Cleveland Cavaliers, the Syracuse product was the team's second-leading scorer, averaging 15.3 points per game.

Even then, he struggled with poor shot selection. He took more than 200 three-pointers in his rookie season, despite making them at a dismal 31.0% rate. Over the next couple of years, he saw his shooting percentage dip to under 40 percent but was still relentless, putting up over 13 shots per game. For someone who has never been a great jump shooter from distance, it is utterly confusing why over 50% of his shot attempts have come from 16 feet or farther from the rim.

A change of scenery has not helped much either. Waiters posted a career-low 9.8 points per game in 2015-16. In four seasons, he holds a combined nERD of -24.2, a career PER of 11.9, and a box plus/minus of -2.7. All advanced analytics agree. They say Waiters has been a detriment to his teams over the course of his career, in spite of his modest scoring ability. NBA teams seem to have figured it out as well. This past summer when NBA franchises were tossing around money like they printed it, Waiters had to take a pay cut to find another job in the league.

Coming out of college as a Wooden Award finalist and the Nation's leading rebounder, Robinson had enormous expectations -- for himself and placed on him by the NBA. Unfortunately, the 6'8" power forward has fallen short. Playing for five teams in four seasons, Robinson has not been able to establish himself in any rotation due to his ineffectiveness on the offensive end.

Even on a dismal Brooklyn Nets team in 2015-16, the former Kansas Jayhawk managed only to see 12.9 minutes per game thanks in large part to his true shooting percentage of 45.3% and a net rating of -11.

After an unimpressive lone season at Duke, an immature Rivers declared for the draft. Desperate for a point guard, the Pelicans selected him with their second first-round pick. In his first NBA season, the then 20-year-old had a disastrous year, averaging only 6.2 points per game and posting an effective field goal percentage of 40.5%. Three more seasons in the NBA and a year-and-a-half under his father's tutelage have improved the point guard's overall numbers, but Rivers still falls short of a replacement level player let alone a player worthy of a top-10 pick in the draft.

Another NBA vagabond, Kendall Marshall has played on four teams in four seasons. Injuries, his 48.0% effective field goal percentage, and his 25.8% turnover rate have made it hard to stick on a roster. Unable to find a home with the point guard deficient Philadelphia 76ers may have been the last straw. Recently traded for and then released by his fifth team, Marshall may have already seen his final days in the NBA at age 25.

While Kidd-Gilchrist still lands in the top 20, being taken second overall ahead of players with All-Star appearances on their résumés -- Drummond, Lillard, and Green -- makes him one of the biggest busts in this draft. While there have been worse second-overall selections -- Darko Milicic or Hasheem Thabeet for recent examples -- MKG had an atrocious rookie season and has seemingly been injured ever since.