NASCAR Betting Guide: Pennzoil 400

If you watched last week's NASCAR Cup Series race in Fontana, you may think the board is wide open in Las Vegas.

In that one, Erik Jones had the best average running position of the entire field. Tyler Reddick won each of the first two stages and led 90 laps. Austin Dillon and Daniel Suarez both finished inside the top five.

None of those drivers won a race last year. And with the Next-Gen car's goal being to reduce the gap between the teams with massive funding and those with less, you might think we're in a much more wide-open era of NASCAR.

That could be the case. And if so, you'd want to be hesitant about laying short odds on drivers for Las Vegas as the unpredictability could be high.

For me, though, I'm still a bit skeptical.

Fontana is a two-mile oval with massive tire falloff. Not only is that specific track not represented in the playoffs, but nothing like it is, either. In the past, we've seen some of the bigger teams completely ignore that track type, instead focusing their preparation on more prevalent track types that have playoff representation.

We see this in the data, too. Last year, the big, fast tracks were either the best track type (in terms of aggregate average running position) or second-best track type for Trackhouse Racing, Front Row Motorsports, and Rick Ware Racing. None of those are top-flight teams. It was among the worst track types for Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske, two teams that put a heavy emphasis on the playoffs.

Las Vegas -- the site of this week's Pennzoil 400 -- is a track that is represented in the playoffs, one of four races on 1.5-mile tracks in the final 10 races. We're going to see more resources dedicated by the big teams to this week than we saw last week.

Still, when you look at the outright markets for this race, you see a massive emphasis on what happened last week. Reddick's win odds (+1400 at NASCAR odds) are equal to those of Kyle Busch and shorter than those of Martin Truex Jr. (+1700). That's not to say there's anything wrong with that! Reddick is a hyper-talented driver, and Richard Childress Racing has had its hands on the Next-Gen car longer than anybody else. But it's clear we are seeing a reaction to last week.

Given what's outlined above, I'm inclined to bet against that a bit. My model has increased uncertainty baked into it because of last week's race, but even with that, I do think there are some good spots to take advantage. Here are my favorites based on the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kyle Larson to Win (+450)

(UPDATE: Larson has since shifted to +350 to win.)

Before you bet this, go check other sportsbooks available to you. There are still some lingering +500's available on Kyle Larson, and you should take every edge you can get.

However, if the only book available to you is FanDuel, my sims are still showing value on this number.

With the increased variance baked in, my simulations have Larson winning 21.7% of the time, up from his implied odds of 18.2% at +450. If I return things to more of a baseline level of uncertainty, Larson's win odds increase to 24.5%. I don't think that's wise given what we saw last week, which is why my preference is making things more volatile. It just shows that what we saw last week is accounted for here, and it's still showing value on Larson.

Last year, the Cup Series ran 9 races on 1.5-mile tracks; Larson won 4 of them, and he led 95-plus laps in 3 others. Larson had a first-place average running position in more races on 1.5-mile tracks (two) than any other driver had wins on the track type. That's 25% of all first-place average running positions in the Cup Series since the start of 2019 (and Larson had two of the others, as well, at Dover and Nashville).

Basically, the guy was unstoppable, he's coming off a win last week (even if it wasn't nearly as dominant as he was last year), and his odds are actually longer now than they were entering that race (+400). As long as you can get Larson at +450 or longer, I'd have a hard time saying no to him here.

William Byron to Win (+1300)

(UPDATE: Byron has since shifted to +1100 to win.)

A lot of the thought process with Larson translates to his teammate, William Byron: he was fast last week and on the 1.5-mile tracks last year, and you don't have to pay an increased toll to bet him here.

Byron got caught up in an incident last week after Reddick blew a tire. But before that, he was among the fastest cars in the field.

Even with that speed, Byron's outright odds are identical to what they were last week.

Now, we go to a track type where Byron mopped up. His aggregate average running position on 1.5-mile tracks ranked second in the sport behind Larson. Byron got the win in Homestead and added a top-three average running position in Texas, Charlotte, and the playoff Kansas race.

This is Byron's age-24 season, an age where many drivers experience a spike in production. Even without expecting a big leap, my sims have Byron winning 9.0% of the time, better than his implied odds of 7.1%. I'll happily take that, allowing me to react to what we saw last week without paying prohibitive odds.

Martin Truex Jr. to Podium (+430)

This third bet depends on how you want to play things. If you're okay adding a third outright, I'd back Denny Hamlin (+1300). Personally, I'm fine with that, putting a full unit on Larson with a half on Byron and 0.3 units on Hamlin. But if you'd rather not be too exposed to a market where only one driver wins, then taking Martin Truex Jr. to podium is my preferred route.

Last week, the Joe Gibbs Racing cars were -- frankly -- brutal. None of them finished inside the top 10, and Hamlin was the only guy with a top-10 average running position. It was -- in their words -- embarrassing.

But there's a simple explanation for that. The cars dealt with overheating all race long, which both forced them to pit extra to cool the engines and sapped horsepower when they were running.

I initially was worried this was an issue that would follow them to Vegas. But The Athletic's Jordan Bianchi reported on Wednesday that this was due to a protective screen the Toyotas had installed to combat all the dust and dirt at Fontana. Those will be removed for this week, upping my confidence in the group as a whole.

When the engines weren't overheating, they were fast. Hamlin and Kyle Busch had the fastest single-lap speeds in practice, and both qualified on the second row. If not for the overheating, they likely would have been contenders during the race.

That's why I'm comfortable allocating more exposure to the outright market via Hamlin despite a healthy chunk of the win equity in my model going to Larson.

As for Truex, my model has his podium odds at 21.5%, up from his implied odds here at 18.9%. The 1.5-mile tracks were certainly not Truex's forte last year as he led just 45 laps on them, but this is a different rules package than what was in place then. Truex won at Las Vegas in 2017 with a higher-horsepower package, and he led 96 laps here in the 2018 playoff race, the final Vegas race before the shift to the 550-horsepower package. He's a talented driver who may benefit from a shift toward more off-throttle time, making him a fine way to bank on a bounce-back for Toyota this week.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ross Chastain to Finish Top 10 (+340)

My model views Ross Chastain's move to Trackhouse Racing as being an equipment downgrade. Therefore, my baseline expectation is that I'll be lower on Chastain than the market. But here, my numbers actually are showing value.

That's largely due to how practice went Saturday. There, Chastain ranked 10th in single-lap speed and 11th in five-lap average. He didn't qualify as well, but he was still a respectable 18th.

Plus, Chastain and Trackhouse did show speed last week. He had worked his way into the top 10, but a spin and flat tires ruined his day. His teammate, Daniel Suarez, nearly won the race, so this team has the ponies to compete. I'm fine taking a bite here on Chastain and hoping the practice speed translates to the race.