NASCAR Betting Guide: Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500
If you're doing your civic duty as a smart bettor and shopping around this week, you'll realize that FanDuel is giving you a gift.
Kyle Larson's outright odds this week are all over the map. He's as short as +275 at some books, putting his implied odds at 26.7%. My simulations can't quite get there.
But at FanDuel Sportsbook, Larson is +360. The implied odds there are 21.7%, a dip of 5 percentage points from the shorter numbers.
We don't get line discrepancies this large often; we should take advantage.
Let's run through why Larson's odds are attractive outside of the line discrepancy and then discuss other spots we can find good value based on FanDuel's odds.
Kyle Larson to Win (+360)
The reason price-shopping for Larson matters so much is that my numbers show no value at +275. My simulations have him winning 25.9% of the time, below the implied odds there of 26.7%.
But at 21.7% implied odds? It's game on, baby.
Larson's the clear standout in the field this week. Not only did he win the All-Star Race at this same track, but he has won 2 of 7 points-paying races on 1.5-mile tracks this year. His 931 laps led top the rest of the sport by a whopping 708 laps. He led 327 of those laps in Charlotte, another low-tire-falloff track with the same configuration as Texas.
This is a long race where strategy can play a factor thanks to the lack of tire falloff. That means we could well see someone other than Larson in victory lane. But with how dominant he has been in similar races, it's hard to turn down Larson at a number like this.
Kyle Busch to Win (+800)
Typically, I wouldn't bet two outrights on drivers with odds this short. If one of them wins, the other inherently loses. But value is value, and I'm seeing some with Kyle Busch, as well.
Busch ranks second in my model's projected average running position and has the second-highest win odds at 13.9%. That's a healthy leap up from his implied odds of 11.1%.
The enthusiasm there stems from Busch's excellence in the 550-horsepower rules package this year. Both of his wins have come in this package, and he has cranked out 6 top-5 finishes in 7 races on 1.5-mile tracks. Busch hasn't finished off the podium at a track of this length since the first Atlanta race in June.
Busch doesn't have the same lap-leading profile as Larson, but he has been sniffing the front. His average running position has been inside the top 5 in 4 straight races on 1.5-mile tracks. That means if something were to get wonky, Busch would likely be in a position to capitalize. Between the two, I prefer Larson at his number, but I'm more than happy to snag both with the odds being this long.
Martin Truex Jr. to Win Group Two (+260)
Martin Truex Jr. hasn't been in the Larson or Busch tier on 1.5-mile tracks, which is why my model isn't super high on him overall this weekend.
He just so happens to be facing other guys who don't project all that well, either.
Here's Truex compared to the rest of group two in terms of my model's projected average running position this week.
|Group Two||Projected ARP||Group Win Odds|
|Martin Truex Jr.||10.4||+260|
Truex leads the group largely thanks to solid runs in both Las Vegas races, another track that features minimal tire falloff.
If anything, I think the model is overrating Joey Logano. Logano hasn't had a top-10 average running position at a 1.5-mile track yet this year, and he has just 1 top-10 finish. I don't view him as being a threat to Truex in this group.
The one actual threat is Chase Elliott, whose projected average running position is lower due to his levels of volatility. He was runner-up in both Charlotte and Vegas, which bodes well for this weekend, but he has typically struggled in Texas and often runs into trouble. Even accounting for Elliott's upside, I'm still comfortable betting on Truex to win this group at +260.
Austin Dillon to Finish Top 10 (+190)
You'll have to mosey on over to FoxBet to get this one, but Austin Dillon is undervalued at +190 to finish top 10.
Dillon enters Sunday ranked 11th in my model's projected average running position for the race. He gets there thanks to 3 top-10 finishes in 7 races at 1.5-mile tracks this year and no finishes worse than 13th.
Dillon, specifically, runs well on these tracks with minimal tire falloff. Both of his career non-superspeedway wins came at tracks like this, including a win last year in Texas. That was aided by strategy, but Richard Childress Racing puts a heavy emphasis on pit calls and tends to put their drivers in positions to succeed.
My model actually gives Dillon a 52.1% shot to finish inside the top 10, and his implied odds here are just 34.5%. It could mean I'm overestimating his speed, but based on his results this year, I don't think that's the case. I just think he's being undervalued, and I'm happy to take advantage.