Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the YellaWood 500
Our objectives for this week are twofold: we need a winner, and we need place-differential. It's still a simple formula.
As discussed in this week's track preview, even with the 12 playoff drivers starting at the front, our typical blueprint for superspeedways in NASCAR DFS stays the same. We can pick a driver at the front if we think they'll win, but the other four spots in our lineup should be dedicated to drivers projected to finish better than where they're starting.
Now we've gotta put that plan into action.
The starting order for Sunday's YellaWood 500 has been set, so we know which drivers can check the place-differential box. It helps that we have some logical choices back there, which we'll discuss momentarily.
To pinpoint those logical choices, we'll want to put a heavy emphasis on track history. Looking at what drivers have done at Daytona helps, but Talladega is a very different track, and some drivers perform better at one spot than the other.
The past five Talladega races are listed in the data sheet below. Next up are the two Daytona races. Finally, we've got four recent races that have utilized the 550-horsepower package. They'll be running just 450 horsepower this week, but it's a closer parallel than looking at the 750 package. I skewed toward the larger tracks like Michigan and Pocono where top-end speed is more apparent.
As always, the data listed here is each driver's average running position rather than their finish. However, it's worth noting that those numbers can be a bit misleading on superspeedways. Some drivers will hang out in the back, hoping to avoid trouble, which drags down their average running position. Only 2 of the past 11 winners on superspeedways have had an average running position outside the top 15, but it's still a mark that's a bit more deceptive than usual.
To get a look at finishes, you can supplement the data with Racing Reference's fantasy tool and check out the past seven superspeedway races. Seven races is still a small sample, so I wouldn't cross off drivers who haven't had success in that stretch, but it can show us who is out front when it matters most.
The other data listed is each driver's starting position, FanDuel salary, and win odds at NASCAR odds. The win odds are in fractional form, so Denny Hamlin ($14,000 on FanDuel) being listed at 9.5 means he's +950 to win.
| Track History |
Current Form |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | FD Salary |
Win Odds |
Start | 2021 | 2020 Fall |
2020 Spring |
2019 Fall |
2019 Spring |
Daytona Summer |
Daytona Spring |
Vegas Fall |
Michigan | Pocono 2 |
Pocono 1 |
| Denny Hamlin | $14,000 | 9.5 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 12 | 19 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Kyle Busch | $9,800 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| Chase Elliott | $13,500 | 11 | 3 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 19 |
| Ryan Blaney | $12,500 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 29 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 10 |
| Kyle Larson | $11,000 | 14 | 5 | 40 | -- | -- | 24 | 12 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 5 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $8,800 | 32 | 6 | 16 | 13 | 24 | 31 | 10 | 12 | 27 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 14 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,000 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15 |
| Joey Logano | $13,000 | 11 | 8 | 29 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 8 |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,500 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 13 |
| William Byron | $12,000 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| Alex Bowman | $9,000 | 22 | 11 | 23 | 18 | 11 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 33 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| Christopher Bell | $5,500 | 38 | 12 | 10 | 39 | 15 | -- | -- | 10 | 11 | 23 | 12 | 13 | 23 |
| Tyler Reddick | $5,900 | 32 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 13 | -- | -- | 17 | 26 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| Kurt Busch | $6,500 | 32 | 14 | 25 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 22 | 25 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $6,800 | 32 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 22 | 32 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 21 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,100 | 32 | 16 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 20 | 23 |
| Chase Briscoe | $4,500 | 55 | 17 | 16 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 19 | 22 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 20 |
| Daniel Suarez | $5,000 | 55 | 18 | 28 | 24 | 27 | 14 | 16 | 25 | 34 | 20 | 21 | 15 | 14 |
| Bubba Wallace | $11,500 | 32 | 19 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 19 | 12 | 13 |
| Aric Almirola | $10,800 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 28 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 22 | 32 | 20 | 20 | 10 | 19 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $10,300 | 38 | 21 | 23 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 20 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,300 | 49 | 22 | 10 | 30 | 21 | 18 | 38 | 38 | 14 | 21 | 18 | 14 | 14 |
| Ross Chastain | $8,200 | 38 | 23 | 14 | -- | -- | 32 | 27 | 12 | 12 | 21 | 27 | 18 | 20 |
| Chris Buescher | $8,600 | 49 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 30 | 23 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Ryan Newman | $5,300 | 49 | 25 | 25 | 10 | 26 | 22 | 19 | 27 | 36 | 20 | 18 | 21 | 31 |
| Erik Jones | $7,500 | 49 | 26 | 20 | 10 | 23 | 21 | 13 | 24 | 38 | 20 | 24 | 27 | 20 |
| Ryan Preece | $8,000 | 55 | 27 | 14 | 11 | 18 | 26 | 21 | 18 | 9 | 26 | 21 | 17 | 24 |
| Cole Custer | $8,400 | 55 | 28 | 13 | 21 | 12 | -- | -- | 17 | 13 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 37 |
| Corey LaJoie | $4,000 | 75 | 29 | 27 | 32 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 15 | 14 | 29 | -- | 25 | 30 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,500 | 110 | 30 | 23 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 37 | 31 | 28 | 30 | 37 | 24 |
| Cody Ware | $2,500 | 200 | 31 | 30 | 23 | -- | -- | 31 | 30 | 22 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 24 |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,000 | 200 | 32 | 28 | -- | 31 | -- | -- | 31 | 20 | 33 | 31 | 30 | 29 |
| Justin Allgaier | $6,100 | 75 | 33 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 26 | -- |
| Josh Bilicki | $2,500 | 200 | 34 | 38 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 32 | 22 | 35 | 34 | 36 | 33 |
| Quin Houff | $2,500 | 200 | 35 | 26 | 24 | 35 | -- | -- | 39 | 28 | 35 | 33 | 35 | 31 |
| Joey Gase | $2,000 | 200 | 36 | 35 | 26 | 36 | 34 | -- | 34 | 20 | 37 | 37 | -- | -- |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 200 | 37 | -- | -- | 38 | -- | -- | 32 | -- | 35 | 35 | 33 | 29 |
| Justin Haley | $7,700 | 38 | 38 | 32 | 27 | -- | -- | 22 | 21 | -- | 32 | 27 | -- | 27 |
| David Starr | $2,000 | 200 | 39 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 36 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Landon Cassill | $3,000 | 200 | 40 | -- | -- | -- | 29 | 34 | 23 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
As you can tell by the win odds, your search for place-differential should start with Justin Haley ($7,700).
Haley is a beast on superspeedways, even if you ignore his rain-aided win in the Cup Series back in 2019. He has four wins in the Xfinity Series at either Daytona or Talladega, and he has one additional runner-up in Xfinity and a runner-up in the Camping World Truck Series. When you put him in good equipment, this guy competes for wins.
He'll have that good equipment this week. Rather than driving for his typical Cup Series employer, Spire Motorsports, he's driving for Kaulig Racing. Kaulig is his Xfinity Series team, and they'll field a car for him in the Cup Series next year. Kaulig got a win with A.J. Allmendinger at the Indianapolis road course, and Kaz Grala got them a top-10 finish in the spring Talladega race. Putting Haley in the seat for Sunday makes him a cash-game play and a standout tournament option despite likely high popularity.
The starting range from 19th through 27th is littered with drivers who have had past success on superspeedways. Bubba Wallace ($11,500) has had blistering speed at Daytona and Talladega this year. Aric Almirola ($10,800) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($10,300) are both former Talladega winners. Ross Chastain ($8,200), Chris Buescher ($8,600), and Ryan Preece ($8,000) bring starting spots in the mid-20s and have shown juice on this track type, as well. This is the range -- in addition to Haley -- where we want to build our core this weekend. Even with the top drivers at the front, these guys give us logical ways to attack Sunday's race.
