NASCAR Betting Guide: FireKeepers Casino 400

Once again, everything revolves around Kyle Larson.

Larson enters Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan at +260 to win at NASCAR odds, making him easily the favorite driver to get the job done. That's deserved, given he's a three-time winner here and that all three wins came before he moved to Hendrick Motorsports. He's also starting from the pole, so Larson's going to be a force.

Unfortunately, that doesn't translate to betting value on him. His implied odds are 27.8%. My simulations have him winning 19.6% of the time, which is a massive number and easily tops in the field but is still not enough to justify betting him. It's a bummer.

It also means that if we're going to bet an outright on someone else, we need to make sure they can beat Larson. It obviously can happen; Larson has won two of eight races in this rules package (non-drafting 550-horsepower races) this year. He would have won another had he not blown a tire in the final corner, but it's a high-variance sport. That stuff can happen.

Either way, he needs to be in our mind across our betting card this weekend, and it should alter how we approach outrights elsewhere.

After making the proper considerations, which drivers present betting value for the FireKeepers Casino 400? Let's check it out.

Brad Keselowski to Win (+1900)

If you're a resident of #NarrativeStreet, Brad Keselowski is a Michigan native who has never won at his home track and will run his final race there for Team Penske on Sunday.

Sounds like a great script, right?

Truthfully, this recommendation has nothing to do with wee little Brad as a lad in Rochester Hills. It's about the upside he has shown in the 550-horsepower package this year.

Across eight races, Keselowski has three podium finishes and five top-nine average running positions. One of the podiums was in Pocono, the closest parallel to Michigan we've gotten thus far thanks to its massive size. Keselowski led at least 27 laps in Homestead, Las Vegas, Kansas, and the second Pocono race.

Despite never having won here, Keselowski has been close several times. He was runner-up in the first race of last year's double-header, one of three runner-ups and six podiums across 23 races. My simulations have Keselowski winning 7.2% of the time, up from his implied odds of 5.0%, making him a quality outright for Sunday.

William Byron to Podium (+410)

William Byron already has a win in this package, potentially pushing you to bet his outright at +1900. Personally, I'd rather give myself more flexibility and shoot for the podium.

The reason for optimism around Byron generally revolves around his performance in this package. The win in Homestead was one of three top-five finishes and two top-five average running positions. The other top-five average running position was in Charlotte, another track -- like Michigan -- with minimal tire falloff. His lone average running position outside the top 10 in this package was a 13th-place mark in the second Atlanta race.

The other non-Homestead podium finish for Byron in this package came in the first Pocono race. As mentioned with Keselowski, that should boost our confidence level for Michigan.

My sims see value in both Byron's outright and podium odds. The reason I'm opting for the podium instead of the outright is that I'd personally put Larson's win odds higher than the sims have them at 19.6%. If I do that, it lowers the pieces of the pie I'm able to allocate elsewhere. Still, the sims show a decent edge in the podium odds (25.2% versus 19.6% implied), so I'll take the extra wiggle room.

Kurt Busch to Podium (+1000)

Kurt Busch's best runs tend to come on tracks with heavy tire wear, and Michigan isn't that. However, his track history here is really impressive, and my simulations think he's undervalued here.

Busch's pre-2019 data at Michigan is borderline irrelevant given that it came in better equipment than he has now. Still, in four races with Chip Ganassi Racing, Busch does have a runner-up finish and four top-10 average running positions. This team has also won in Michigan semi-recently, doing so with Larson three times from 2016 to 2017.

Busch showed strength in Pocono, which doesn't feature much tire falloff, either. He had an eighth-place average running position and finished sixth in the first race there. He also led 12 laps.

Combine the track history with the performance in the 550-horsepower package, and my simulations have Busch hitting the podium 11.3% of the time. That's enough of an edge over his 9.1% implied odds for me to take a stab.

Denny Hamlin to Win Group One (+340)

Group one is pretty loaded as it effectively just lops off the two favorites in Larson and Kyle Busch. But even in a crowded group, Denny Hamlin is still undervalued.

Hamlin's average finish in my simulations is 6.8, which ranks third in the entire field behind Larson and Busch. It's a good chunk ahead of the others in this group.

The sims have the exact opposite ranking of the betting odds, so let's just hope it's the odds that are off and not the sims.

Personally, I'm fine being high on Hamlin. He has three fourth-place finishes in this package, and his only average running position outside the top 10 was in Homestead, a track that features heavy tire falloff. Two of the better runs were in Pocono and Las Vegas, which have tire falloff more similar to Michigan. I'm looking to fade Kevin Harvick, who seems overvalued based on his history at the track, and betting Hamlin here allows me to do so with some nice value.