Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona
Double the races could mean double the pleasure. But tonight, it might mean double the trouble.
That's not to say that there will be chaos tonight during the Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona. In fact, we should expect the opposite, as discussed in our strategy preview for the DFS slate. They tend to be pretty calm relative to other drafting races.
The trouble is our own. With less chaos and a smaller field, we have to try to predict who will finish well rather than targeting drivers largely based on their starting position. In such a high-variance event, that can get dicey.
This might lead to the data mattering even more than usual. We'll also have to consider leaning more on narratives than we'd typically like. So let's dive into both aspects here.
Below, you'll find two separate data sheets: one for each duel tonight. They're sorted by the starting order, helping illustrate where we may be able to scoop some place-differential points when possible. As discussed in the strategy preview, that's not nearly as big of an emphasis tonight as it will be Sunday, but there are some potential outlets in each race.
Along with the starting positions are each driver's FanDuel salary, win odds, and performance in relevant races. The win odds are in fractional form, so Denny Hamlin ($14,000) being listed at 5.5 means he is +550 to win.
As always, the performance-related numbers are each driver's average running position in those races. This gives us a good read on each driver's true strength rather than their actual finishing position.
In the pack-racing tracks at Daytona and Talladega, this does require a caveat. We often see teams and drivers hang out in the back early on, hoping to avoid wrecks. That can obviously drag down their average running position and not properly reflect the strength of their cars. Still, with the volatility in how drivers finish at these tracks, it does seem to be the preferred route over showing where they wound up at the end. It can also show which drivers just don't have the speed necessary to compete in a reduced-chaos event.
Here's that data for the first race on Thursday.
| Track History |
Current Form |
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | FD Salary |
Win Odds |
Starting | 2020 Summer |
2020 Spring |
2019 Summer |
2019 Spring |
Texas 2 |
Kansas 2 |
Talladega 2 |
Las Vegas 2 |
Darlington 3 |
Talladega 1 |
| Alex Bowman | $10,000 | 9 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 11 |
| Aric Almirola | $9,500 | 7.5 | 2 | 25 | 16 | 22 | 13 | 22 | 16 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | $8,500 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 20 | 38 | 23 | 18 | 10 |
| Christopher Bell | $8,000 | 12 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -- | -- | 14 | 13 | 39 | 18 | 25 | 15 |
| Ryan Preece | $4,200 | 25 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 11 | 25 | 23 | 18 |
| Daniel Suarez | $5,000 | 30 | 6 | 17 | -- | 21 | 15 | 27 | 30 | 24 | 30 | 28 | 27 |
| Denny Hamlin | $14,000 | 5.5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| Kyle Larson | $11,500 | 7 | 8 | -- | 23 | 16 | 19 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $8,200 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 21 | 16 |
| Austin Cindric | $6,200 | 20 | 10 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Joey Logano | $13,000 | 6.5 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 10 | 4 |
| Ryan Newman | $6,000 | 16 | 12 | 19 | 13 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 10 | 20 | 20 | 26 |
| Cole Custer | $7,000 | 18 | 13 | 19 | 24 | -- | -- | 16 | 16 | 21 | 17 | 17 | 12 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,500 | 25 | 14 | 15 | 23 | 19 | 19 | 24 | 22 | 30 | 18 | 23 | 21 |
| Erik Jones | $6,000 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 23 | 22 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 23 |
| Tyler Reddick | $7,000 | 20 | 16 | 16 | 18 | -- | 23 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 29 | 18 | 13 |
| Ty Dillon | $3,500 | 40 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 26 | 27 | 14 | 25 | 26 | 19 |
| Jamie McMurray | $4,200 | 28 | 18 | -- | -- | -- | 23 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Quin Houff | $2,500 | 66 | 19 | 32 | 33 | 39 | -- | 35 | 34 | 24 | 35 | 34 | 35 |
| Timmy Hill | $2,000 | 66 | 20 | 35 | 26 | -- | -- | 31 | 36 | 24 | 38 | 38 | 36 |
| Cody Ware | $3,000 | 80 | 21 | -- | -- | -- | 35 | -- | -- | 23 | -- | -- | -- |
| Josh Bilicki | $2,000 | 80 | 22 | 39 | -- | -- | -- | 31 | 36 | -- | 36 | 34 | -- |
That's one component: finding drivers with individual strength. The other factor is finding overall teams and manufacturers that could do well and stacking them.
We often see a lot of teamwork in these races, which will lead to correlated drivers finishing well in individual duals. Clearly, if we can guess right, it won't be as tough to accurately predict who will finish well in each race. That increases the allure of stacking, which is already a viable strategy at Daytona.
If you're looking for stacks in the first race, here are some pairings that could work among drivers with relevant speed.
| Team | Manufacturer | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Hendrick | Chevy | Bowman/Larson |
| JTG-Daugherty | Chevy | Stenhouse/Preece |
| Stewart-Haas | Ford | Almirola/Custer |
| Joe Gibbs | Toyota | Bell/Hamlin |
| RCR/Trackhouse | Chevy | Suarez/Reddick |
| Penske | Ford | DiBenedetto/Cindric/Logano |
The big three-driver stack here is Joey Logano ($13,000), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,200), and Austin Cindric ($6,200). It also helps that they're starting in the middle of the pack -- 9th through 11th -- and have a plus team-wide history on these tracks. This is the highest-value stack in this duel.
Another factor helping this stack is that Cindric isn't currently locked into the Daytona 500. He was third in speed during single-car qualifying, meaning it's not a certainty that he's racing on Sunday. That could increase the incentive for Logano and DiBenedetto (in a Penske-affiliated team) to help out Cindric, push him to the front, and finish well. We should have plenty of exposure to all three drivers in this trio.
Here's the data table for the second duel.
| Track History |
Current Form |
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | FD Salary |
Win Odds |
Starting | 2020 Summer |
2020 Spring |
2019 Summer |
2019 Spring |
Texas 2 |
Kansas 2 |
Talladega 2 |
Las Vegas 2 |
Darlington 3 |
Talladega 1 |
| William Byron | $10,200 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 12 |
| Bubba Wallace | $8,500 | 10 | 2 | 15 | 26 | 22 | 33 | 34 | 20 | 13 | 25 | 29 | 15 |
| Kevin Harvick | $12,000 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,500 | 14 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 12 | 23 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 22 |
| Chase Elliott | $13,500 | 6.5 | 5 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| David Ragan | $4,000 | 25 | 6 | -- | 19 | 24 | 23 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 31 | 14 | 18 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 12 |
| Kyle Busch | $11,000 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 14 |
| Ryan Blaney | $13,300 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 22 | 6 |
| Kaz Grala | $4,500 | 60 | 10 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Chase Briscoe | $6,500 | 22 | 11 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ross Chastain | $7,500 | 18 | 12 | 29 | 15 | 37 | 31 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 32 | -- |
| Brad Keselowski | $12,500 | 7 | 13 | 19 | 11 | 18 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 17 | 8 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | $9,300 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 22 | 15 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| Chris Buescher | $7,300 | 22 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 20 | 29 | 37 | 23 | 8 | 18 | 21 | 15 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $4,500 | 66 | 16 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Corey LaJoie | $3,700 | 33 | 17 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 36 | 24 | 25 | 32 | 24 | 31 | 26 |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 80 | 18 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 31 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 38 |
| B.J. McLeod | $3,000 | 80 | 19 | -- | 34 | 36 | 34 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 31 |
| Joey Gase | $2,500 | 100 | 20 | 37 | 34 | 36 | -- | 35 | 39 | 26 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
| Derrike Cope | $2,000 | 100 | 21 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Noah Gragson | $2,000 | 50 | 22 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Similar to the first duel, you'll notice some Penske drivers starting in the middle of the pack. That's a plus for stacking. Here's the correlated driver pairings for this duel.
| Team | Manufacturer | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Hendrick | Chevy | Byron/Elliott |
| JGR/23XI | Toyota | Wallace/KyBusch/Truex |
| Stewart-Haas | Ford | Harvick/Briscoe |
| Front Row | Ford | Ragan/Alfredo |
| Ganassi | Chevy | KuBusch/Chastain/LaJoie |
| Penske | Ford | Blaney/Keselowski |
Just like Logano and DiBenedetto, Ryan Blaney ($13,300) and Brad Keselowski ($12,500) are fast, starting in the middle of the pack, and paired with at least one teammate. It's going to be a Penske-heavy slate for both races.
The numbers may draw us toward a Joe Gibbs Racing and affiliates stack here given there are three cars. It's worth noting, though, that JGR was one of the teams that chilled in the back for the first stage of last year's Daytona 500. If they take a similar approach this year, they may not care where they qualify, lowering their need to try tonight. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,300) has never finished better than fifth in a duel race in his entire career, and Kyle Busch ($11,000) has just one top-10 the past four qualifying races. They make sense from a process perspective, and Bubba Wallace ($8,500) has incentive to try with limited on-track time for a new team. But there is some risk, specifically with Busch and Truex.
The potential alternative is a Chip Ganassi and affiliates stack. Kurt Busch ($9,000) has six top-fives in his past eight duel races, and his lone true teammate -- Ross Chastain ($7,500) -- is starting 12th. Chastain won at Daytona in the Xfinity Series back in 2019, so there is some talent there. Corey LaJoie ($3,700) is a risk because his speed is an unknown, but his team does have an affiliation with Ganassi, potentially making him a salary-saver while you're loading up on the high-salaried Penske drivers.
