NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Busch Clash
If you are looking for an action-packed way to get your sports fix, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America. NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, of course!
Here at numberFire, we've always got you covered for everything NASCAR DFS. We have a Heat Check Daily Fantasy Podcast, where Jim Sannes breaks down his favorite plays for Sunday's slate. Jim also has a track preview to detail how this weekend's track configuration and race length impact this slate.
Tuesday night's event is a fun introduction to the 2021 NASCAR season. It will take place five days before the Daytona 500, but in a special twist this year, the race will be run on the 3.81-mile road course configuration at Daytona International Speedway. This exhibition race is the shortest race in terms of number of laps (35) of any event this season, and the 21-car field will rival the NASCAR All-Star Race for the smallest field of drivers the entire campaign. Both of those facts put a tremendous emphasis on where drivers finish in this race. While laps led and place differential points are nice, the short races decreases their importance.
The starting lineup for Tuesday's race was set by a random draw on Monday night. Pit stalls will also likely be selected in this same order, which puts Ryan Blaney in the advantageous position of starting at the front and having the best pit stall.
With that, let's preview the Busch Clash at Daytona on FanDuel:
High-Salaried Drivers
Chase Elliott ($13,000): If there were not daily fantasy slates around for these races, I might be convinced that Chase Elliott actually competes in just NASCAR Heat video games on road courses instead of actual races. Elliott has won four straight races on road courses and led a combined 176 of 373 laps in those events. He dominated at the Daytona Road Course last August, leading 34 of 65 laps -- and realistically, it would have been more if not for pit strategy. He is a cash-game staple and is one of the clear favorites. With that said, Elliott will likely be so overwhelmingly popular that it's worth thinking about fading him as he still has plenty of great competition to defeat from his starting spot of seventh.
Martin Truex Jr. ($12,500): Elliott's only true competitor on road courses recently has been Truex even though Truex's 2020 campaign on the configurations included just third- and seventh-place finishes. Of the last eight road course races, Elliott has won five and Truex has won two and got wrecked while leading on the last lap of another. Before Monday night's lineup draw, Truex was more of an interesting pivot from Elliott, but due to starting so deep in the field (18th) as a fast, accomplished road racer, Truex will almost surely be the second-most popular driver in the field. It is fairly easy to stack Truex and Elliott, and a lot of people may do so. Going for one of them and hoping to hit on the winner may wind up being the optimal call. Then again, these two could dominate the race and finish atop the field.
Mid-Salaried Drivers
Kyle Busch ($10,500): Beyond the obvious two, this is where the slate gets fun. Kyle Busch barely staved off a winless 2020 season with a victory in the November race at Texas, and his road course statistics are incredibly ugly due to some of the bad luck he endured in 2020. Busch has four finishes outside the top 30 in his last six road course races, but before that, he posted a streak of eight straight top-10 finishes on these track types. That presents a potential buy-low spot for Busch as teammates Truex and Denny Hamlin have continued to be fast and finish well on road courses. Busch finally needs some luck on his side to pay off those results, though. He has a great starting spot to increase his floor (and ceiling) from 16th place.
William Byron ($9,500): Like his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, William Byron has enjoyed a nice stretch on left-and-right tracks recently -- although Byron has not shown nearly the race-winning results Elliott has. Still, Byron finished sixth and eighth in the two road course events in 2020, and what makes him most interesting as a tournament option is how often he has found the front on road courses. Byron has led more than 20 laps in three of the past five road course events, and he had to work his way to the front to do so in the most recent instance after starting 13th at the Charlotte ROVAL last fall. Starting fifth and with the public possibly having an implicit bias toward place differential, Byron may be less popular than his results merit.
Low-Salaried Drivers
Joey Logano ($8,500): It is basically assured that Joey Logano will never be in a "low salary" driver tier the remainder of the season, as Logano won three times in 2020 and was a participant in the Championship 4 in Phoenix, but the short race and reduced field forced some quality cars in this salary range. When examining the salary pool as a whole, Logano is just $1,500 above the minimum, which is the same gap between Truex and Ryan Blaney -- and that feels like some sort of severe inefficiency to exploit in terms of upside. Logano is in quality equipment and has showcased ability to win and run well on road courses with six career top-five finishes on them -- including a second-place finish in the last road event. Logano is a salary-efficient option to plug in who has a substantial chance to win Tuesday's event from his starting spot of 10th.
Kurt Busch ($8,000): Another low-salary, high-upside option is Kurt Busch -- who usually is under-salaried due to his combination of starting toward the front and a lack of lap-leading upside. Tuesday's format essentially eliminates the penalty for both of those strikes against him. The finish is the most important thing above all else, and Busch has done an outstanding job of securing those on road courses. Busch has a top-10 outings in 7 of the last 10 road course events in the Cup Series, and that comes in races with a full field. The elder Busch brother is starting in 15th, which gives him a nice floor at his modest salary.
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
