NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Sunday's Drydene 311
If you are looking for an action-packed way to get your sports fix, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America. NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, of course!
Here at numberFire, we've always got you covered for everything NASCAR DFS. Our track preview breaks down this week's venue, and we also have The Heat Check Fantasy Podcast, where Jim Sannes breaks down his favorite plays for Sunday's slate. Jim also has a current form and odds breakdown to review how NASCAR's best drivers are performing recently analytically.
Yesterday, Joe Gibbs Racing dominated once again at Dover International Speedway, with Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. trading the lead with less than 10 laps to go, but it was Denny Hamlin who scored his sixth win of 2020 and his first ever at "The Monster Mile." NASCAR's best will re-rack the starting grid and do it all again with another 311-lap race on Sunday at the same track.
This race's lineup was determined using an invert of the top-20 finishing positions from Saturday, which puts 20th place finisher Matt DiBenedetto on the pole for the event. Positions 21 through 40 were determined using the same weighted formula all NASCAR-sanctioned events are using at this point in time. Pit stalls were picked in order of finishing position, however, which means Saturday's winner, Hamlin, will have the premier first pit stall for the event.
With that, let's preview the second Drydene 311 event at Dover on Sunday.
High-Salaried Drivers
Denny Hamlin ($13,000): Drivers who have won the race in the Cup Series this year in a second race of a doubleheader weekend have an average finish of 1.5 and a total of 101 laps led, and that was at larger tracks with fewer laps to lead. In short, Hamlin should be strong on such a strong turnaround. He has led 333 laps over the past two Dover races and has plenty of pass differential upside, as well, due to starting 20th.
Martin Truex Jr. ($13,500): Starting one spot ahead of Hamlin is Truex Jr., who lost the lead inside 10 laps to go on Saturday. Truex Jr. was close to a victory but still continues to dominate "The Monster Mile" overall. He finished first or second in each of the last three races with a total of 285 laps led. The most positive thing might be that Truex Jr. faded early on Saturday to as far back as ninth and still passed his way back to the front. With a car and driver combination that strong, he should battle for the win again on Sunday.
Mid-Salaried Drivers
Kurt Busch ($10,300): What NASCAR's weighted formula has done to daily fantasy is take away a lot of the pass differential upside baked into the randomness of time trials or a tiered draw. The invert, however, at least brings some of that back. Kurt Busch had a terrible Sunday, where he was turned into the inside wall just seven laps into the race. Fluke accidents happen, and it means we get the steady, reliable Busch from a deep 23rd place on the starting grid. Busch already has 14 top-10 finishes in 2020 and has four top-15 finishes in his last five races at Dover -- the lone exception being Saturday's event.
Alex Bowman ($10,000): Bowman was caught up in the same incident as Kurt Busch, and while he did continue, his car did not have the speed to compete for a good finish. As a result, he starts in 21st position on Sunday, but Bowman is returning to a track that was very kind to him in 2019. With a second- and third-place finish on his Dover resume from last year, it was statistically the young driver's best racetrack entering Saturday. He started too well in the field on Saturday to be fantasy-relevant but will present top-five upside from this deep starting draw here.
Low-Salaried Drivers
Christopher Bell ($8,200): Bell took a liking to Dover International Speedway early with an Xfinity Series win in 2019, but that did not necessarily translate to a great finish on Saturday, where he only mustered 22nd. A bevy of mistakes led the team to that finish, but Bell had a top-20 average running position in both stages of the event, showcasing that his Toyota's speed was closer to alliance teammates Hamlin and Truex Jr. than where he finished. Bell is fairly affordable, and starting 24th by virtue of the weighted formula leaves him plenty of pass differential upside.
Matt Kenseth ($6,500): The Chip Ganassi car piloted by Kenseth actually led Saturday's race, but it was ultimately to their own downfall, as that pit strategy call backfired and trapped Kenseth down a lap in the event. Kenseth still maintained a top-20 average running position despite only coming home 23rd. This team won at Dover last fall, and Saturday's race was the first event in seven tries at Dover that the Wisconsin driver failed to secure a top-20 finish. Hopefully, with a less reckless pit strategy, the CGR team can manage the race toward a better finish for Kenseth, who starts 22nd by calculation of the weighted formula.
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
