NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Dixie Vodka 400
If you are looking for an action-packed way to get your sports fix, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America. NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers that crash out of the race is a must, of course!
Here at numberFire, we've always got you covered for everything NASCAR DFS. Every week, in addition to this helper, we have a current form and stats breakdown to dive deeper into this weekend's action. Our track preview breaks down this week's venue, and we also have The Heat Check Fantasy Podcast, where Jim Sannes breaks down his favorite slate for this rare Wednesday night NASCAR Cup Series event.
Martin Truex Jr. made it two wins in a row at Martinsville Speedway on Wednesday, as he overcame an early pit road penalty and right-front damage to handle most of the race's final stage and win going away. Surprisingly, that was the first win of the season for the once-dominant Truex Jr., but NASCAR's best will try to keep him from going on a run at the Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, FL. This track has hosted races only in November since its introduction into NASCAR's top series in 1999, so drivers will have their hands full with the slick track in the June heat on Sunday. This is also the third race in seven days for the drivers, all in sweltering heat, so conditioning will be a premium to survive another 400 miles.
Because this is a different track than Martinsville, the order was determined by a tiered draw instead of Sunday's finishing positions. However, the pit stall selection on this narrow pit road was determined by Wednesday's finishing order, so winner Martin Truex Jr, will have the prime first pit stall. This will also be NASCAR's first race with fans since returning from their COVID-19 break, as 5,000 military personnel were personally invited to sit distanced in the stands.
With that, let's preview the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on FanDuel:
Kevin Harvick ($14,500): Harvick profiles well for this race -- in which he's starting seventh -- as the last two races held on a slick track on a hot, sunny afternoon were won the by Stewart-Haas powerhouse. Harvick has a top-five finish in each of his last six races in Miami, and he's led at least 40 laps in five of those. That actually translates to only the fourth-best average finish here since 2018, but NASCAR is very much a "what have you done for me lately" sport to research. Leading 542 laps at intermediate tracks in 2020, which Homestead-Miami Speedway is characterized as, Harvick sets up strongly in any DFS model on Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr. ($13,300): Wednesday's winner should be a tough out Sunday, as well. Truex has been in the conversation in each of the last three races at Homestead, whether that be his win (and therefore championship) in 2017 or his runner-up each of the last two years. He led 201 laps in those three events, so the New Jersey native boasts both superb recent form at this track and solid overall form in 2020. He led 65 laps at Atlanta Motor Speedway last Sunday on a similar track configuration, and he may lead more in South Beach starting closer to the front (sixth).
Clint Bowyer ($9,000): Bowyer really spiked as a fantasy asset when starting spots were drawn, as he starts as far back as possible in 12th. Perhaps the more compelling part for getting him at this affordable tag is that he really has shown dominant potential like his teammate Harvick. He's led 129 laps in the last four intermediate track races, so Bowyer has found some speed that he had yet to show in the 14 car before 2020. Bowyer has finished outside the top-15 in five of his last six races, but he has an average running position inside the top-10 in four of those six, so the time is right to buy-low on his speed.
Tyler Reddick ($8,300): This track has made Tyler Reddick a two-time NASCAR champion. Reddick entered Homestead-Miami Speedway fourth and third in Xfinity Series points the last two years, but he won both Xfinity events here and led 128 laps in them, beating out Cole Custer and Christopher Bell in both years despite not earning nearly as many points. That should have been an omen to his rookie campaign, where Reddick has bested those two all year with five top-15 showings and leading all rookies in points. Reddick is definitely a horse for this course, and it should come as no surprise with the preferred groove right around the wall that the former dirt racer feels right at home in South Florida.
Christopher Bell ($6,600): Bell is a former dirt racer mas well, and while Reddick beat him each of the last two years here, Bell still led 46 laps and was in contention. Bell's price tag is just far too low. He should be able to hunt for a top-20 finish, and he has four of those in his last six races, including an average running position inside the top-20 in every race in that span but Wednesday at Martinsville. Bell also starts as deep in the field as possible in 36th, so he comes with an incredibly high-floor and realistic top-15 upside. He'll be popular, but he checks a lot of boxes.
Cole Custer ($6,400): A lot of what we just said about Bell can be repeated here. The teammate to Bowyer and Harvick starts a distant 34th, so his floor and upside combination is right in the neighborhood of Bell's. If you are looking to roster only one of the two, Custer might be the way to go because his Xfinity resume is even stronger. He has more laps led at Miami than Reddick or Bell do with 292, including a dominant 182 laps in a 2017 win here. Custer has six top-20 outings in 2020, but his recent cold streak has reduced him to a price point that is ripe for value. Stacking both Custer and Bell with some studs is a great recipe for cash games this weekend.
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.