NASCAR Betting Guide for the Quaker State 400

Picking NASCAR race winners is nearly impossible because of how much has to go right on the track to end up in victory lane. The pit stops have to be perfect, the driver has to avoid pit road penalties and accidents, and crew chiefs need to make the right adjustments to be one of the best cars at the end of a race to give the driver the chance to win.

There is some very basic recent historical data that can be a starting point for NASCAR betting strategy: there are not a lot of drivers who can win. Only 12 drivers won a race last season, and only six won more than a single time in 2018. Last week, Justin Haley had a once-in-a-lifetime cash at a 1000-1 bet to win the Coke Zero Sugar 400. In a non-competitive car, Haley took a huge chance as lightning was close, and the race was cancelled. My congratulations to the handful of insane people holding Justin Haley tickets, but this week should be far more normal.

Below we will cover the best bets of the weekend, but numberFire always has you covered when it comes to NASCAR. Check out the track preview for additional information on the history at Kentucky, and the driver preview will give you some names to watch in this weekend's race.

Here's where to put smart money for the Quaker State 400:

At the Top

Kyle Busch (+430): Kyle Busch leads a lot of NASCAR betting guides in all series because he wins a lot of races. Busch has a notably fast car this weekend, as noted by the NBC Sports broadcast crew, and is no stranger to success here at Kentucky. He's won twice and has two straight top-five finishes here, even leading 112 laps in 2017. Busch will be a factor for his first 1.5-mile win of 2019 from 10th starting spot.

Martin Truex Jr. (+550): Martin Truex Jr. may be the best bet on the board this weekend. Truex has been hit-and-miss at 1.5-mile tracks but did win the Coca-Cola 600 in May and has flat dominated at Kentucky the last two years. The new package is different, but Truex won in 2017 and 2018 at Kentucky and led over 150 laps in both races. Truex has a fantastic chance to do the same on Saturday night from eighth place.

Value Spots

Kyle Larson (+1400): Chevrolet as a whole is gaining speed with their program, and Kyle Larson is close to using that to knock the door down on his long winless streak. Although he did win the All-Star Race at Charlotte back in May, that exhibition win still has him looking for the first playoff-qualifying one of 2019. Larson almost had it two weeks ago at the bumpy 1.5-mile Chicagoland Speedway as he passed Alex Bowman late, but he could not hang on. At 14/1, he's outstanding value coming off such a strong race at a similar track, even starting 19th.

Chase Elliott (+1700): As mentioned, Chase Elliott's teammate, Alex Bowman, won a race on a similar configuration two weeks ago, so it is noteworthy to spotlight two other Hendrick cars here. The first is Chase Elliott, who won at Talladega earlier this year but will be looking for the first non-superspeedway win of his season. Elliott has shown speed at Kentucky in the past, finishing 3rd in 2017. He will start deep in the field again in 20th, but look for the No. 9 car to have plenty of speed at Kentucky as he attempts to match Bowman.

Long Shots

William Byron (+3200): The other Hendrick car worth spotlighting is William Byron, as these appear to be very long odds for a car that was capable of winning a race at Chicago two weeks ago. Byron, Bowman, and teammate Jimmie Johnson all led that race at some point, and 32/1 is a great number for a car with the speed to lead a race. Byron starts a respectable 12th for one of the hottest teams in the sport at Hendrick Motorsports.

Daniel Suarez (+5500): Track position may be more vital at Kentucky than any track in NASCAR, and Daniel Suarez has more of it than anyone as he starts on the pole. He appears to also have a speedy machine, pacing the field in 10-lap averages in final practice. With a car this fast, 55/1 seems like incredibly long odds to close the deal. Suarez has had trouble doing that as he has never won a Cup race while spending his entire career in elite equipment, but it's possible the Mexican-born driver uses his prime starting spot to bust through at Kentucky.

Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.