NASCAR Betting Guide for the FireKeepers Casino 400

Picking NASCAR race winners is nearly impossible because of how much has to go right on the track to end up in victory lane. The pit stops have to be perfect, the driver has to avoid pit road penalties and accidents, and crew chiefs need to make the right adjustments to be one of the best cars at the end of a race to give the driver the chance to win.

There is some very basic recent historical data that can be a starting point for NASCAR betting strategy -- there are not a lot of drivers who can win. Only 12 drivers won a race last season, and only six won more than a single time in 2018. What that means is that, within reasonable measure, we can predict a core of drivers the win will come from, and assess who has the best chance to do so versus their odds.

Below we will cover the best bets of the weekend, but numberFire always has you covered when it comes to NASCAR coverage. Check out the track preview for additional information on the history at Michigan International Speedway, and the driver preview will give you some names to watch in this weekend's race.

Here's where the smart money lies for NASCAR's visit to the Irish Hills.

At the Top

Kevin Harvick (+500): Kevin Harvick is surprisingly not the odds-on favorite this week as that title goes to the red-hot Kyle Busch, but Harvick has just about everything you would hope for in a betting horse this weekend. He dominated both races last year at this track, winning the fall race and finishing second one year ago in this race as rain poured down to shorten the event. Harvick was also fastest in final practice this season. He is still looking to crack victory lane for the first time this campaign, and therefore will keep playing for the big prize and his playoff spot.

Brad Keselowski (+800): No one in the field wants to win at this track more than Rochester Hills native Brad Keselowski, who is now 0-for-19 at his home race track in the Cup Series. He did finish second here last fall, but what is working in Keselowski's favor is his success with this new package. He has three wins this year already, including a victory at a smooth track at Kansas a month ago. Keselowski is great value at these odds given his desire and his season-long speed.

Value Spots

Joey Logano (+1000): Joey Logano has a sparkling track record at Michigan, finishing in the top 10 here in 11 of the last 12 races at this track. He's got three wins in that record, and he boasts the same season-long speed as his teammate, Keselowski. Logano is also a strong drafter, and that should work in his favor as he attempts to navigate through the pack on Sunday. At 10-1 odds, Logano might be my favorite bet in the field, and he's got a legitimate chance to win his second race of 2019.

Clint Bowyer (+2000): Last year's race winner comes in with tremendous odds at 20-1 to go back-to-back. Yes, his victory last year was a rain-shortened one, but Clint Bowyer still drove around Kevin Harvick on two tires before the rain came in one of the strongest passes of 2018. Bowyer won't quietly give up his belt at this track as was second and third in Friday's practices. He has great speed and knows how to succeed at this track.

Long Shots

Erik Jones (+2500): Erik Jones, the Byron, Michigan native, does not have quite the same losing streak here as Keselowski, his fellow statesman, does, but at 0-for-6, Jones surely would love to crack victory lane at his home track. He crashed in the Coke 600, but otherwise has finishes of sixth, third, and third in the other events in the past month. He appears to be turning the corner and finding some more of the speed his teammates Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. have had all season. Jones has great equipment at this price, and he might be able to score a giant surprise.

Daniel Suarez (+4000): Suarez joins teammates Bowyer and Harvick as drivers to keep an eye on this weekend. Suarez has still yet to win a NASCAR Cup race, and, of course, a win Sunday would be a huge upset. Betting on long-shots in NASCAR is not always a profitable endeavor, but at least with Suarez, you get a race-winning vehicle as he was first and fourth in Friday's practice sessions. If Suarez can get himself in position, he certainly has a strong enough car to draft to the front and possibly sneak away with his first career win.