NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Gander RV 400
A new rules package led to an extremely fast and fun race at NASCAR's biggest track last weekend at Talladega. Chase Elliott led a good part of the second half of the race and rallied late with help from teammate Alex Bowman to win his first race of the season. Chase will look to keep it going this weekend by taming "The Monster Mile." This high-banked one mile oval in Dover, DE always seems to produces tight, interesting racing and is notoriously grueling for drivers and teams.
This race is closer to a short track in terms of strategy, as with 400 laps completed and laps led points available, we will once again want to prioritize a potential dominating race car. The new aero package will make its inaugural appearance at Dover, and speeds in the corners this weekend have been much faster than last year. Kyle Busch saying to Racer Magazine that a higher corner speed "does not always produce the best racing" can be translated in these terms for fantasy -- track position should be extremely valuable.
Here at numberFire, we've always got you covered for everything NASCAR DFS. Our track preview gives you more information about Richmond, our driver preview helps bring you up to speed on recent driver history, and our Heat Check Podcast with Jim Sannes gives you insight to how he is approaching this weekend's slate.
With the starting lineup set, and practices one and two complete, let's preview the Gander RV 400:
High-Priced Drivers
Kyle Busch ($15,000): As is the case with many NASCAR fantasy previews, Kyle Busch will be worth discussion for Sunday's race. The good news for Kyle Busch is absolutely his current form, as with a Top 10 on Sunday, he'll tie the modern NASCAR record for Top 10s to start a season. Busch also has a win and two runner-ups in since 2015 at the track, and he is going to start 22nd, which also will allow for pass differential upside. The downside? For some strange reason, the trend for Busch at this spring Dover race specifically is horrendous--his average finish is 31.80 in his last five Spring starts. Busch will look to buck that trend Sunday, and should be a popular pick to do so.
Martin Truex Jr. ($13,200): Martin Truex Jr. appears to be a stud worth paying for this weekend. Coming off a win three weeks ago at Richmond, Truex now embarks on one of his better race tracks. Truex had four straight top fives at Dover before bad luck in last fall's event, and in those last five races, he's led 340 laps total. Not only has he performed well in the past here, but Truex backed that up in Saturday's practice by posting second in the single lap times and third over a 10-lap average. A fast car and a confident driver would be great in any circumstances, but with Truex also starting 13th, he offers some pass differential upside as well.
Chase Elliott ($13,000): Last fall's winner set the track record on Friday with the new aero package and will start from the best starting spot available. Elliott has only made six Dover appearances, but owns five Top 5s already. Chase appears to be a horse for the course, and starting from the pole, he will have plenty of opportunities to lead early. While running toward the front a lot in those six races, though, he has only led 169 laps. Elliott will be solid Sunday, but how long he can hold onto the lead will be what determines what makes his fantasy value at an increased price after his win last week.
Mid-Priced Drivers
Kyle Larson ($10,600): Kyle Larson has had terrible luck in 2019, but any weekend could be the one to turn it around. Larson has three things working in his favor this weekend. First, even while possessing what appears to be race-winning speed, he is only $11,400 because of his bad luck. Second, he has ran extremely well at Dover, as in the pair of 2017 races, he led 378 combined laps, which was nearly half of all. Third, Larson is extremely fast this weekend, posting third in the single lap times, and winning the 10-lap average battle in final practice. Larson will look to control more of his own luck by running out in front of everyone, and should be a high upside, yet surprisingly affordable, option for a FanDuel lineup.
Jimmie Johnson ($10,000): Few drivers are more synonymous with a track than Jimmie Johnson and Dover. Johnson's won 11 times here, the latest of which coming in June 2017. This 48 car has been down on speed most of the year, but Dover could be a place for them to channel it. In final practice, Johnson posted the fastest lap, and the FOX coverage showed him working past Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and others late in final practice. Those are legitimate contenders that Johnson appeared to pass with relative ease, but the time chart disagreed, as Johnson was a mediocre 16th on the long-run speed chart. In this price range, anything close to challenging for a win would absolutely do, and Johnson certainly is capable of that.
Daniel Suarez ($9,600): Like Chase Elliott earlier, Daniel Suarez has had a fantastic start to his young career at Dover. In four races, the Mexico native has four Top 10s. A fifth would do for Suarez on Sunday, as starting 14th at only $9,600. He appears to have a machine capable of doing it, as he posted sixth in both the single lap and 10-lap average speed charts. A more balanced lineup building strategy certainly would lend itself to heavy consideration of the solid-looking Suarez, even though he may not contend for the win.
Erik Jones ($9,100): Jones falls into the same category as his ex-teammate Suarez, where in this price range, he appears to have a sporty looking machine. Erik posted third on a single lap run and second on the 10-lap charts. Jones has had some rough runs lately, only posting one top 10 in his last 8 races, but with speed like this, that is sure to turn around soon enough. At only $9,100, the potential of a Top 5 from 15th on the grid would be a phenomenal result for a Jones fantasy owner at Dover.
Low-Priced Drivers
Ryan Newman ($8,100): Newman has three straight Top 10 finishes, and he'll have a chance for the fourth at a place where has 14 already in his long and successful career. Newman was still hunting the balance in final practice, only posting 20th, but at $8,100 starting deep in the field in 21st, Newman is viable salary relief, and his recent momentum may carry the successful veteran to another good result should he avoid bad fortune.
Chris Buescher ($6,800): The JTG Daugherty machines both are in the bargain bin, and that starts with Chris Buescher. The Texan is starting 30th in a machine that, before an unlucky, hard crash at Talladega, was gathering momentum. Buescher had an extremely consistent run of seven races before that, averaging a finish of 19.28. The high-floor, high-ceiling pass differential situation is the attraction to Buescher, who could only muster 24th in practice. He finished 20th in this race a year ago, which would be an outstanding result at this price and starting so deep in the field.
Ryan Preece ($6,200): Preece had the opposite weekend of his teammate last weekend, as while Buescher wrecked, Preece posted his best career finish of third. As is the case with any rookie, the limited history makes it tough to gauge how Preece may fare at this race track in particular, but it is worth noting he finished fourth in the Xfinity Series race here last fall. Starting 29th and posting 27th in practice, Preece is in the same boat as Chris Buescher, where the situation is more favorable that the car, but at even $600 cheaper than the other JTG option, Preece's salary could open up flexibility for additional studs battling for the win.
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
