5 Under-the-Radar Daily Fantasy Baseball Hitters for 4/18/16

Todd Frazier has started the season slow but could turn things around in a hurry in a favorable matchup tonight.

If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.

The purpose of this article will be to bring you some high-upside players who will likely go overlooked and give you an edge.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs

FanDuel Price: $4,300

Why He Will Go Overlooked:

The daily fantasy community is enamored with Anthony Rizzo and the Cubs, so it is very rare that we get Rizzo under-owned. However, the slugger has struggled recently and is likely to lose a lot of ownership to Joey Votto, who will be a featured part of a very popular Cincinnati Reds stack.

Why You Should Use Him:

Rizzo's opponent,  Mike Leake, posted a 4.19 SIERA last season and struggled specifically with lefties. He allowed left-handed batters to hit for a higher slugging percentage and wOBA while also striking out far less frequently.

Rizzo, a lefty, crushed right-handed pitching last season. He posted a .527 slugging percentage, .255 ISO, and .384 wOBA. He also had a 44.8 percent fly-ball rate and 34 percent hard-hit rate against righties. For these reasons, Rizzo is almost always a popular option when facing a weak righty. Take advantage of this opportunity to jump on him at low ownership.

Todd Frazier, 3B, Chicago White Sox

FanDuel Price: $3,700

Why He Will Go Overlooked:

Todd Frazier has also gotten off to a slow start and will certainly lose ownership to Matt Carpenter and Nolan Arenado, who have been red-hot recently.

Why You Should Use Him:

Frazier will face Hector Santiago today, and Vegas has it ending poorly for Santiago. Chicago's 4.4 projected runs are the fourth-highest on the slate, and their cleanup hitter will likely be a big part of reaching that total.

Santiago, a lefty, posted a 4.50 SIERA last season, along with some favorable splits to right-handed batters. 26 of the 29 homers he allowed last year came off of the bat of righties, which isn't surprising when you look at the underlying stats. He allowed a much higher slugging percentage and ISO to righties, while also allowing a robust 55.8 percent fly-ball rate. That is a recipe for disaster.

Enter Todd Frazier, who mashed lefties last season. Frazier raised his slugging percentage from .461 to .608 against lefties, his ISO from .208 to .346, and his wOBA from .331 to .377. He also elevated his fly-ball rate to a lofty 50.4 percent and his hard-hit rate to 38.5 percent against righties. Frazier is a good bet for production tonight and likely won't see ownership nearly high enough to reflect his upside.

Miguel Sano, OF, Minnesota Twins

FanDuel Price: $2,900

Why He Will Go Overlooked:

Another slow starter! Miguel Sano has been a big reason for Minnesota's offensive woes, and most people are taking a wait and see approach with the youngster at this point.

Why You Should Use Him:

Sano's struggles at the dish have been undeniable, but a matchup with Chase Anderson might be just what the big right-handed slugger needs to break out of his funk.

Sano now has hits in three of his past four games, including two extra-base knocks. He'll look to build on that momentum against Anderson, who had a 4.26 SIERA last year and posted reverse splits, struggling against right-handed batters.

Sano also experienced some reverse splits last season, walking more and striking out less against righties. He also posted a higher slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA, and fly-ball rate against righties.

He is far from a safe play, but you aren't going to find a combination of high upside, low price, and low ownership like this anywhere else. Give him a look in tournaments tonight.

Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers

FanDuel Price: $2,800

Why He Will Go Overlooked:

Jonathan Lucroy has struggled this season, averaging just 6.5 FanDuel points per game. Catcher doesn't have any obvious plays today, so Lucroy may get some ownership in tournaments in a good matchup, but don't expect him to be heavily owned.

Why You Should Use Him:

We're sticking with the Minnesota-Milwaukee game the rest of the way. We're also sticking with the reverse splits theme.

Phil Hughes struggled mightily last season, amassing a 4.39 SIERA in a disappointing season. His struggles were especially apparent against right-handed batters, to whom he surrendered a .547 slugging percentage, .369 wOBA, and 44.5 percent fly-ball rate.

Lucroy was much better against lefties early in his career but has posted better numbers against righties for consecutive seasons. From 2014 until now, Lucroy has posted a higher slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA, fly-ball rate, and hard-hit rate against righties.

He should have no problem reaching value while hitting cleanup against Hughes tonight.

Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Minnesota Twins

FanDuel Price: $2,400

Why He Will Go Overlooked:

Oswaldo Arcia isn't a regular player for the Twins, and outfield is deep today. Don't expect him to be a popular player, even in a good matchup.

Why You Should Use Him:

Arcia has back-to-back multi-hit games for the Twins and draws a terrific matchup against Chase Anderson tonight.

In his career, Arcia has launched 31 of his 37 homers against right-handed pitching, and his underlying numbers offer validity to those numbers.

Arcia has crushed righties throughout his career, but he's been especially dangerous at home, as evidenced by his splits chart below.

Oswaldo Arcia SLG ISO Hard% FB% wOBA
vs Left-Handed Pitching 0.346 0.112 29.0% 36.6% 0.275
vs Right-Handed Pitching 0.484 0.234 33.7% 43.3% 0.348
at Home vs Right-Handed Pitching 0.521 0.258 39.3% 43.7% 0.372

Make sure he's in the starting lineup tonight, and if so, get him in those tournament lineups. It's rare to find a player with his power potential for so cheap.