Staff Predictions for 2016 MLB Awards

Predicting who'll snag each of Major League Baseball's major awards prior to the season is no small task.

There's the emotional dilemma of whether or not you go with what the consensus figures to be the chalk at the award. You've got your Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw, but then you consider the voter fatigue where those guys could get the old-school Kobe Bryant treatment. That's a tough balance.

Then you have to weigh who will be the best at each spot versus who will garner the most votes. In a system that still values a trip to the playoffs in handing out individual awards, that complicates things quite a bit.

All of those hardships are nullified by the fact that we get to talk some baseball in April.

We had our baseball writing staff here at numberFire strap up our boots, hunker down, and crank out our thoughts for who would win each of the league's major awards. Who does the staff like to take home the hardware this year? Let's check it out.

Ben Bruno

Twitter: @BenBBruno

AL MVP: J.D. Martinez
NL MVP: Anthony Rizzo
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg
AL Rookie of the Year: Byron Buxton
NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager

It’s difficult to choose anyone other than Mike Trout to win the AL MVP, and he’s my true choice for the 2016 season, but if forced to pick someone else, I’m going with J.D. Martinez. He has 40 home run, 100 RBI, and 100 runs scored potential -- all with the ability to hit .280. He fell just two home runs and seven runs scored short of doing just that last season. Martinez increased the percentage of fly balls he hit in 2014 to 2015 by almost seven points while his home run to fly ball ratio stayed relatively the same. This led to an increase in both his home runs and his isolated power, and is something he should be able to maintain in 2016 with similar batted-ball outputs. Our projections forecast a .366 wOBA with 35 home runs, 89 runs scored, and 101 RBI for Martinez in 2016, but don’t be surprised if he surpasses all of these totals.

I’m choosing Stephen Strasburg to win the NL Cy Young in 2016 because of how he dominated in the second half last season after getting healthy. Among pitchers who threw at least 60 innings in the second half, none had a better xFIP (1.95) or a better strikeout percentage (37.4%) than Strasburg. His 3.3% walk rate was second best, and he limited hitters to just a .177/.206/.306 line with a .223 wOBA. Whew. Our projections expect Strasburg to post a 3.30 ERA with a 29.4% strikeout rate in 2016, which might not be enough to win the Cy Young. But if you’re a believer in his second half like I am –- his 1.90 SIERA was also the best in the second half -– then look for Strasburg to be one of baseball’s best pitchers in 2016.

Brandon Warne

Twitter: @Brandon_Warne

AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Byron Buxton
NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager

These feel super vanilla, but the heart wants what the heart wants. Byron Buxton is going to get a ton of run out in center for the Twins and can do enough things outside of hitting that if he can simply muster a .700-.720 OPS, he could still be the odds-on favorite. The tools are just that loud. Corey Seager is in the perfect position to succeed, and I just don't love the field on that side this year. Kenta Maeda may sneak up on him, but my vote goes to Seager.

Chris Sale was absolutely incredible last year and might have won the award if he'd made a full season worth of starts. He allowed just four extra-base hits to left-handed hitters last year -- all doubles. The NL side is an absolute gauntlet -- I can think of 12 to 15 contenders -- but I won't bet against a guy who, despite not winning, fanned over 300 (!) batters last year in Clayton Kershaw.

Mike Trout's going to pass Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett for career fWAR this year. Let's just stop and think about how crazy that is. There's arguments to be made for many players on both sides of the aisle, but I think he and Bryce Harper are the clear class of each league. And they're a combined 47 years old. Unreal.

Jacob Gibbs

Twitter: @Jagibbs_23

AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton
AL Cy Young: Carlos Carrasco
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Byung-Ho Park
NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager

Trout was chalky, but I like Stanton as a sneaky MVP candidate. Among players with at least 300 plate appearances, Stanton led the MLB in ISO and hard-hit rate, while also posting a 44.9 percent fly-ball rate. He was on pace for a ridiculous 58 dingers before succumbing to injury for the second consecutive season. I believe Stanton gets a bit more luck with injuries this season and easily leads the league in homers, and consequently, MVP votes.

Carrasco's xFIP of 2.66 and SIERA of 2.74 both suggest that he could return to an ERA in the mid-twos, which indicates that his bloated ERA was a result of bad luck rather than a decline in skill. Carrasco saw an increase in his BABIP and a decrease in his strand rate from 2014, both of which back up the theory that he was a victim of bad luck in 2015. He also put up a 10.58 K/9 last season, fueled by the MLB's fourth-highest K% of 29.6 percent and the fifth-highest swinging strike rate of 14.0 percent. He puts it all together this season and barely beats out Chris Sale and teammate Corey Kluber for the Cy Young.

In addition to leading the league in both SIERA and xFIP, Kershaw posted the league's best K-BB% last season, which was aided by the first 300 strikeout season since 2002. I'm betting the National League doesn't have two pitchers with a sub-1.80 ERA again, and Kershaw wins his third Cy Young in four years.

Alex McDonald

Twitter: @McDonaldA12

AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Anthony Rizzo
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year: Byron Buxton
NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager

Chris Sale had an xFIP last year of 2.60 compared to an ERA of 3.41. If his ERA can get closer to his xFIP in 2016, his chances to win the award should increase a lot. The strikeouts should be there, and he also had a BABIP of .323. I hate using the 'luck' word but it seems like his 2015 was slightly unlucky.

I love Anthony Rizzo this year. The lineup around him is incredible, which should help his counting stats (and teams can't pitch around him too much). He is only 26 and hits .280 with a .900+ OPS.

Clayton Kershaw's dominance has been incredible. Three hundred strikeouts is crazy. He's likely to lead the NL in ERA and punchouts. Wins are hard to predict, so I don't put as much weight into them.

Corey Seager's superb debut was obviously a super small sample size, but hitting .337 with a .986 OPS is rare for a rookie. His BABIP was pretty high last year, and I don't expect him to produce at the same level for a whole season. But, even with a little regression, he's still my top rookie.

Derek Lynch

Twitter: @thedereklynch

AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Rookie of the Year:  Byung-Ho Park
NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager

Mike Trout led the league (again) in fWAR last year. He's always a candidate, and nobody would have argued if he had won any of the last four years. Bryce Harper is just tapping into his immense potential, and he finished last year tops in the league in fWAR, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, on-base plus slugging, isolated power, RC+, and wOBA.

Chris Sale winning the AL Cy Young was a tough call over Carlos Carrasco. Advanced stats suggest it could be a near dead heat, but in the end, Sale will have more strikeouts to sway the non-analytics guys.

If Byung-ho Park's power translates to Target Field, he will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs in the middle of the potent Minnesota Twins lineup. Corey Seager produced 1.5 fWAR in only 27 games last year with a low 16.8% strikeout rate. What more do you need?

Jim Sannes

Twitter: @JimSannes

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton
AL Cy Young: Carlos Carrasco
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg
AL Rookie of the Year: Byung-Ho Park
NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager

An injury-plagued season last year allowed Miguel Cabrera to fly a bit under the radar, but that doesn't change the fact that he was still disgusting at the plate. He had nearly as many walks as strikeouts while holding a 40.1% hard-hit rate. I can't allow a guy with those credentials to go un-picked on a preseason MVP list, even if Mike Trout is (and should be) the heavy favorite.

If Giancarlo Stanton can stay healthy all year, he'll finish in the top five in voting. He averaged a home run every 11.78 plate appearances in 2015 thanks to a grotesque 49.7% hard-hit rate and 44.9% fly-ball rate. With the fences moved in and lowered in Miami, his raw power stats could be even better than the pace he was setting last year. It's not a guarantee he'll be able to top the numbers of Bryce Harper or Paul Goldschmidt, but he's at least got a shot.

I tried as hard as possible not to pick the chalk at most spots, but I wasn't even tempted to do so for the NL Rookie of the Year. Corey Seager had a 46.8% hard-hit rate and a 16.8% strikeout rate last year in his 113 plate appearances. He's a star in the making, and while I love me some Kenta Maeda, this is Seager's award to lose.

Ari Ross

Twitter: @aross50

AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Kris Bryant
AL Cy Young: Carlos Carrasco
NL Cy Young: Madison Bumgarner
AL Rookie of the Year: Byron Buxton
NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager

Kris Bryant posted 6.5 fWAR in less than a full season as a rookie. There's no doubt he can put up MVP-caliber numbers on the North Side in his second season in the MLB.

Carlos Carrasco was a top-15 pitcher with poor defense and little run support last season. Now with improved defense, a little bit better run support, and some BABIP and home run to fly-ball ratio regression, Carrasco should be among the best pitchers in baseball with his filthy arsenal.

Clayton Kershaw might be the favorite, but watch out for Madison Baumgarner leading an improved San Francisco Giants rotation with a great defense behind him. He'll be right in the mix in September.

Sean Murphy

Twitter: @bpsmurph

AL MVP: Carlos Correa
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
AL Cy Young: Carlos Carrasco
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg
AL Rookie of the Year: Jose Berrios
NL Rookie of the Year: Kenta Maeda

Carlos Correa has baseball's first 10 fWAR season since Mike Trout did it in 2013. Correa's torrid season ends with him posting 40 home runs and 25 stolen bases. Correa edges out both Trout and Manny Machado, who also each hit 40 home runs in 2016.

Jose Berrios wards off teammates Byron Buxton and Byung Ho Park to win AL ROY, after delivering a sub-3.30 ERA for the Twins. After being called up in late April, Berrios goes on to strike out nearly a batter per inning and maintains a 3.5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Berrios enters the 2017 season as a top-30 fantasy pitcher in all formats.

Stephen Strasburg narrowly edges out Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey for NL Cy Young as he finally puts it all together for the world champion Washington Nationals. Strasburg ends up going 18-4 with a 2.45 ERA with 280 strikeouts over 230 innings.