4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 9/23/15
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. As a note, these stacks do not include the game at Coors between the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates. You already know to have ownership at Coors -- I don't need to tell you that. Here are the other teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
If you're playing the early slate today, it looks like you should have plenty of runs to play with. The Detroit Tigers aren't a terrible option, but with the unknowns of facing Frankie Montas, I'd rather go the safe route and call upon the Astros.
Now, I say "safe," but that's not necessarily a good descriptor of the Astros today. They're facing Nick Tropeano, who has struggled with his control this season, but dude can rack up the strikeouts. That's a problem against this team that strikes out so terribly often. In fact, I'd consider Tropeano if you're playing an early-only slate and need a high-upside arm with potentially lower ownership. He also provides upside in the bats, though, as -- between Triple-A and the Majors -- he has issued 3.25 walks per nine innings. Walks, when coupled with a 35.7 ground-ball rate, can lead to big innings quick. And the Astros are often all too happy to oblige.
If you're looking for safety in this matchup, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Jed Lowrie are probably your best options. They are the only three players on the team who have below-average strikeout rates against right-handed pitching. I don't mind George Springer on FanDuel, either, because of his elevated walk rate. He should be able to wiggle his way on base a few times and potentially get you a steal or a run in the process.
Toronto Blue Jays
Three of Ivan Nova's 14 starts this year have come against the Blue Jays. In those, he has allowed 13 earned runs over 14 innings. This just a reflection of what has been an awful season, in which Nova has a 4.76 xFIP. Tonight is Round 4 between Nova and his foes, and there figure to be a whole lot of runs.
The interesting thing about Nova's struggles against the Blue Jays is that he has been much better against right-handed batters than lefties. Against lefties, Nova's strikeout percentage falls to a whopping 7.5 percent. That also happens to be his walk total. This should shape how you form your lineups.
If you find Justin Smoak batting fifth, you need to give heavy consideration to rostering him. He has crazy salary relief, and he bats from the left-hand side against Nova. The same thing is true for Dioner Navarro. Both figure to bring lower ownership than a Josh Donaldson or one of the other, bigger bats. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are both a bit reverse-splitsy, so they should be in consideration, but Smoak and Navarrro would be two guys I'd be hoping are in the lineup.
With their recent run, the Cubs have worked their way up to 12th in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Earlier in the year, they were mired in the mid-20's, which is a truly remarkable bounce back. They figure to continue that improvement today against Zach Davies.
One thing the Cubs have done well the entire season is draw walks. They've averaged 9.2 per nine innings, tied for the highest mark in the league against righties with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Milwaukee Brewers starter Zach Davies has struggled with his control ever since mid-June when he was still in the Baltimore Orioles' system. That followed him to the Majors, where he has walked 12 batters while striking out 14 over 21 innings. That's bad news against the Cubbies, y'all.
Allow me to list the Cubs batters who have a walk rate of 11.3 percent or higher against righties: Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Coghlan, Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero. That's potentially three-fourths of the position players in their starting lineup today. You think this team isn't going to bathe in base runners today? When they do, you'll want some of these lil homies on your roster.
I wrestled back and forth here between the Nationals and the New York Mets as to which team provided the better stack. Williams Perez is a lock to allow at least a couple of runs because of his absurd walk rate, and the Mets have plenty of batters who are able and willing to draw walks. They're not a bad idea, and I think they have a generous floor. But at the same time, Perez's ground-ball rate may limit the upside of the stack. That's not a concern with Chris Tillman against the Nationals.
Tillman's numbers have declined almost across the board this year as he now averages 6.24 strikeouts and 3.27 walks per nine innings. His ground-ball rate has increased to 43.4, but his 21.3 line-drive rate has jacked his SIERA all the way up to 4.67. There is big-run potential with his line-drive rate and average fly-ball rate, especially when you look at what lineup he's facing.
Just to give you a heads up: Bryce Harper is probably going to walk four times tonight. Tillman averages 3.79 walks per nine innings against lefties, and Harper has the second highest walk rate in the league. Everything else skews toward righty batters, which is good for those of you eager to roster Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth. They should be able to slap a couple of line drives, pick up some extra bases, and allow you to soak up the points.