4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 7/2/15
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. Here are the teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
I could totally see a Diamondbacks stack in this game, too. I decided to go with the Rockies because of Chris Rusin's high ground-ball rate. Either way, make sure you have ownership in this game because there is plenty of run potential to be had.
Speaking of ground-ball rates, that is not an area in which Jeremy Hellickson excels. He has gotten better than he was last year, but it's still below average at 41.9 percent. This sinks even lower to 40.2 percent against lefties, who are hitting .322/.396/.536 off of him this season.
With that said, there are some reverse splits on the Rockies of which you should be aware. Most notably, Nolan Arenado is the illest mamma jamma in the building. He has a .370 isolated slugging mark against righties this year and a 50.5 percent fly-ball rate. No other righty in baseball has an iso mark higher than .317 this year, and only four have fly-ball percentages of 50.0 or higher. I know he's expensive, but dude may be worth it tonight.
Toronto Blue Jays
Wade Miley should not be allowed to face right-handed hitting. This year, righties have slashed .277/.341/.457 off of him, and now he gets to face the Blue Jays, who are flush with disgusting right-handed bats. Ruh roh.
Miley has an above-average ground-ball rate overall, which is normally bad for our purposes. It does, however, slide down a bit to 46.0 percent, slightly above average, against right-handed bats. This has helped bring his xFIP to 4.29, which is the dangerous territory in a park like the Rogers Centre.
As always when the Blue Jays are facing a lefty, there's going to be high ownership in their top bats. Considering what he brings, I could not care less about that with Edwin Encarnacion. He's only at $4,400 on the DraftKings late slate despite his constant double-dong potential. Encarnacion has a 47.2 percent fly-ball rate against lefties. He's a hard guy to fade in a matchup like this.
I really went back and forth with this one. On the one hand, it seems like guys making their big-league debuts murder all stacks against them. On the other hand, Manny Banuelos struggles to throw strikes and could flood the basepaths tonight. I'm rolling with what the numbers say rather than my hurting bankroll.
Banuelos started 15 games this year at Triple-A prior to his promotion. He walked at least three batters in nine of those. The Nationals have a 9.2 percent walk rate against lefties. This could get gross if Banuelos can't keep the ball in the zone.
I know this may come as a shock (it won't), but Bryce Harper is a big reason for that inflated walk rate. He has taken a base on balls in 19.8 percent of his plate appearances against lefties this year. He also has a .292 isolated slugging off of lefties. You can counter his high salary by punting Danny Espinosa, who has a .320/.393/.500 slash against lefties this year after cruising at .301/.374/.485 last year.
With all of the injured peeps matriculating back into Milwaukee's order, this may no longer be a lineup to avoid completely. They rank 14th in wOBA over the past 14 days and are in the top 10 over the past week. That's not data off of which I'd base a decision, but it does match what you'd assume with the top sticks healthy. Now, they get a match-up with Chad Billingsley, who helps quell some of those concerns.
Billingsley has made three starts this year. He has allowed at least seven hits in each and hasn't struck out more than three batters in any outing. Additionally, batters are making contact on 90.8 percent of their swings, which is jaw-dropping. In his most recent full season (2012), righties had a higher fly-ball rate against him than lefties, meaning the Brew Crew's best bats should be locked and loaded.
The one problem here is that you'll need to find either an evening or all-day slate with a 6:35 pm start time. If you do so, Aramis Ramirez is a name to consider. His ownership should be low because he has had an absolutely horrendous season. However, he does bring some interesting long-ball potential as he lofts fly balls on 42.8 percent of his batted balls against righties. If he can get under one, he could provide you with some solid contrarian points in a plus match-up.