4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for 7/1/15
Each day here on numberFire, we'll be providing you with four potential offenses to stack in your daily fantasy lineups. These are the offenses that provide huge run potential on that given day based on matchups and other factors.
After reading through these suggestions, make sure to check out our daily projections. These can either let you know which players to include in each stack, or which guy best complements said stack.
Another great tool is our custom optimal lineups, which are available for premium subscribers. Within the tool, we've added the option to stack teams -- you choose the team you want to stack, show how many players you want to use within the stack, and the tool will create a lineup based on this that you can then customize.
Now, let's get to the stacks. Here are the teams you should be targeting in daily fantasy baseball today.
Toronto Blue Jays
I'm not as big of a fan of this stack as Vegas is (over/under of 9 with the Blue Jays -140), but it's still by far the best offense for the early slate of games.
Rick Porcello is better than his 5.54 ERA would indicate. He may not rack up a lot of strikeouts, but he doesn't walk many batters, and his ground-ball rate is right around league average. This has resulted in a 4.02 xFIP on the season, which really isn't bad, but it's enough when you're facing the team that ranks fourth in wOBA against righties and pitching in the Rogers Centre.
One strategy that might not be terrible for the early slate is fading the Jays in tourneys. As I mentioned, Porcello really isn't an awful pitcher. Additionally, the ownership totals on Toronto's bats are going to be absolutely nuts, giving you little upside vis a vis the competition. I'd consider fading them completely and trying to find a less popular stack, but if you do decide to go with the Jays, consider some lower-owned bats to provide yourself with that upward mobility in the standings. This is not to say they won't post a high run total or that you shouldn't stack them in cash games, but it could be an interesting strategy to go against the grain here.
New York Yankees
Matt Shoemaker has been the target of a lot of stacks this year with his high fly-ball rate. He does have plenty of potential, but against a team that has crushed right handers and doesn't strikeout a lot in the Yankees, Shoemaker again is on this list today.
Shoemaker has not had an easy path this year, facing a team ranking in the top 13 in the league in wOBA against righties in nine of his 14 starts. In those nine starts, he has allowed 34 runs in 46 innings for a 6.65 ERA. He has also allowed 11 home runs which is right in line with his 38.7 percent ground-ball rate. Mike Scioscia should let him face the Mariners more often.
I get the negative park factor at Angel Stadium, but the pricing on the Yankees for the DraftKings late slate is ign'ant. Brett Gardner is the only New York hitter who is priced above $4,000. There are a bunch of guys that will run you less than that who will have serious dong potential with Shoemaker's high fly-ball rate. Vegas favors the Angels' offense, but the Yankees seem to have a grotesquely higher upside for tonight.
Nick Martinez doesn't have a ground-ball rate quite as low as Shoemaker's, but he makes up for that with his lack of strikeouts. You best believe there will be some balls in play against Martinez and his 4.97 xFIP.
Of the teams in the top 18 in the league in wOBA against righties, only two have struck out more than 21 percent of the time: the 'Stros and the O's. This means they have managed to post solid numbers (Baltimore ranks seventh in wOBA with Houston ninth) despite getting absolutely nothing in over one fifth of all plate appearances. When they face a pitcher who is able to hold them to nothing in fewer plate appearances, these already dangerous teams are able to do exponentially more damage. This is why I have been targeting both Baltimore and Houston when they have faced low-strikeout pitchers this year.
As he made sure to remind you last night, Chris Davis can still smack a baseball around. Davis has a 40.0 percent hard-hit rate against righties, ranking 15th in the league. Despite that, he'll only run you $4,200 on DraftKings today. The pricing for the Orioles is pretty high, but Davis is an exception in this instance.
Los Angeles Dodgers
It has been fun to watch Robbie Ray through his first six starts this year. He has racked up a 1.98 ERA with a 3.10 FIP, which is awesome for a kid that doesn't turn 24 until October. Unfortunately, he still has some characteristics that are conducive to stacking, namely his low strikeout totals and his low ground-ball rate.
The reason that Ray's FIP has stayed low this year is that he hasn't allowed a lot of long balls. This, however, is due to an unsustainably low 4.7 home run to fly-ball ratio (the league average is around 10.0 percent). His xFIP sits at 4.04, and you'd expect his ERA to be higher than his xFIP while pitching at a park like Chase Field. This is why I am more than fine with rolling out the barrels against him tonight.
The Dodgers on the whole this year haven't been great against lefties, ranking 17th in wOBA. But a lot of that was without da platoon gawd, Scott Van Slyke. Now that both he and Yasiel Puig (who showed reverse splits last year but was great against lefties in 2013 and has been so far this year) are back, this offense has upside to spare. Also, Joc Pederson has a 36.7 percent fly-ball rate against lefties with a 27.3 home run to fly-ball rate, so you may not want to completely fade that lil pup in this one.