MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: 6/17/15
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As for today's lineups -- those can be found here. The information below is to help you understand why particular players are being picked, because we don't want you going into the things completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things often change up until the games start, so make sure you're refreshing the optimal lineups as close to the start of games as possible.
Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw is our top pitcher tonight, and despite there being some really interesting options, it's by a pretty wide margin. I really can't blame our algorithm, either. The Dodgers host the Rangers in what will be a negative park shift for the Rangers' bats. The over/under in the game is set at just six runs, and LA is -275 to win. Kershaw's now gone at least 6.2 innings in each of his last six outings, striking out double-digit batters in four of those six games. If you're playing cash games on a single-pitcher site like FanDuel, I would go pretty heavy on the Dodgers' ace.
Alternative Options: Michael Pineda
Jesse Chavez – Chavez makes for a good play on DraftKings tonight thanks to his cost, but you could even make a case for him on FanDuel. He'll be at home to face the Padres, a team that's been brutal against right-handers, hitting to just a .293 wOBA while striking out at a 22.0% rate. Both of those numbers are bottom five in the league. Chavez, meanwhile, has a relatively decent 20.5% strikeout rate on the year, and his 2.80 FIP is fourth best among all pitchers going tonight. He's in a great spot to put up nice numbers.
Alternative Option: Alex Wood
Starling Marte - Marte is our algorithm's top hitter of the day on DraftKings, as he'll face lefty John Danks in Chicago. So far this season, Danks has given up a .404 wOBA to right-handed bats, while Marte has a career .421 wOBA versus southpaws, roughly 100 points better than what he sees against righties. To make things even better, Marte's been pretty hot, riding a seven-game hit streak with five straight multi-hit games. Targeting Danks is always a good idea, and doing so with a strong hitter with the platoon advantage is an even better one.
Evan Gattis - It's going to be a big Stackstros night, as the Rockies are throwing Kyle Kendick on the mound to face Houston. Our numbers like a ton of Astro hitters, but specifically Gattis, who always has the potential to go yard. Though he doesn't have the platoon advantage, it doesn't really matter -- Kendrick has a 5.09 xFIP this year, and over his career, he's still surrendering a .321 wOBA to right-handed hitters, despite being a righty himself. Oh, and the game is at Coors.
Alternative Options: Bryce Harper
Ryan Raburn - When the Indians face left-handed pitching, Raburn typically bats in the cleanup spot in the lineup. Tonight they get Tsuyoshi Wada, who's been horrendous against lefties in limited time this season. But I'm not basing this choice off of Wada as much as I am player and price. And mostly price. Raburn is dirt cheap on both of the big DFS sites, and over his career, he has a .350 wOBA and .218 ISO when given the platoon advantage. When Raburn starts, he's always the perfect punt option.
Xander Bogaerts - Two shortstops to love tonight are Bogaerts and Jung-Ho Kang, but since I already talked about targeting Danks, let's talk about Bogaerts. He's been hitting in a nice lineup spot for the Red Sox, and while the Sox, as a team, haven't been strong against left-handed pitching this year, Bogaerts specifically gets the platoon advantage tonight against Alex Wood. He has a career .355 wOBA versus southpaws, while Wood has struggled a bit this year against right-handers, and in the larger career sample, is certainly worse in the split.
Alternative Option: Darrell Ceciliani