MLB

MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 7/27/23

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 Jul 27th, 2023

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Francisco Lindor To Record 2+ Total Bases (+100)

The New York Mets have a slate-high 5.12 implied run total tonight, and we want to jump on some of their player props.

We have a much smaller slate of games today compared to yesterday but still have a few good spots to attack. We'll start with the Mets and one of their best hitters, Francisco Lindor. This is a straightforward prop for Lindor To Record 2+ Total Bases at even money, so let's not overthink things.

He will be up against Josiah Gray, who allows a .397 SLG, .333 wOBA, 5.21 xFIP, 1.00 HR/9, and 42.9% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters this season. Gray is about as average of a pitcher as you will find, and we want to trust the skill Lindor has for this matchup.

When it comes to Lindor, he's rocking a 113 wRC+, .330 wOBA, .203 ISO, 45.5% fly-ball rate, and 38.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. His .265 BABIP is a touch lower than the league average of .295, which suggests he is due for some positive regression.

I'll take Lindor with great baseline stats at even money when the Mets are expected to rack up plenty of runs tonight.

Dylan Cease Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-104)

While Dylan Cease has some strikeout potential, this is not the matchup for him.

Yes, Cease has a solid 28.0% strikeout rate and 13.7% swinging-strike rate, but he might not get to show that off tonight. He's up against the Cleveland Guardians, who come in with an 18.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the lowest in the league.

Cleveland is the most disciplined team at the plate and does not give away any free chances.

We also need to factor in that Cease has a worrisome 9.4% walk rate, which tends to drive up his pitch count. This is why we haven't seen him get past 6.0 innings pitched since the middle of May.

His lack of efficiency plus a tougher matchup at the plate puts Cease in a spot where the strikeouts could be lacking tonight and points to under 5.5 on his prop.