3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/24/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Justin Turner To Hit a Home Run (+400)
The Boston Red Sox have a 4.82 implied run total tonight and looking to get their offense back on track.
After a few slow games, the Red Sox have a favorable matchup versus Tyler Anderson to put up some runs and show the power they have. This season, Anderson is allowing a .380 wOBA, .534 SLG, 6.23 xFIP, 1.64 HR/9, and 50.4% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. I say this with no exaggeration -- Anderson might be one of the worst pitchers in the league versus righties.
We should jump on this chance with Justin Turner, who's having a bit of a resurgence this season. So far this year, Turner has a 146 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .218 ISO, 45.2% fly-ball rate, and 42.9% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Turner normally has Rafael Devers hitting behind him, so Turner will see good pitches to hit.
As usual, I'm adding Turner To Record an RBI (+135).
Teoscar Hernandez To Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)
The Seattle Mariners' offense should continue to roll versus the Oakland Athletics tonight.
It's no surprise, but the Athletics have a terrible pitching staff, and we want to consistently target player props against them. Ken Waldichuk will be on the mound, he comes in with a .415 wOBA, .579 SLG, 5.55 xFIP, 11.8% walk rate, 2.50 HR/9, and 42.1% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.
The Mariners should be able to flex their offense tonight with this matchup, and we should be turning to Teoscar Hernandez. This season, Hernandez has a 98 wRC+, .306 wOBA, .295 ISO, 46.4% fly-ball rate, and 35.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.
The power is clearly there for Hernandez coming off of two hitless games, so this is his spot to bounce back.
Matt Boyd Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-116)
A simple under on a strikeout prop to close things out today.
Matt Boyd isn't a great pitcher. That's what this really boils down to. His 19.8% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, and 5.26 xFIP are not good. That has caused him to hit the under on this mark in six of his eight starts, putting us on the right side of things tonight.
His matchup against the Kansas City Royals isn't as favorable as you might imagine. Sure, the Royals aren't a great team, but they're also not wasting chances at the plate. This season, the Royals have a 21.4% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the 10th-lowest rate in the league. That rate drops to 20.1% when they are at home versus lefties as they are tonight.
Boyd isn't a big-time strikeout pitcher, and this isn't the matchup for him. It's the under all the way.