3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 4/25/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Matt Chapman To Hit a Home Run (+340)
The Toronto Blue Jays have a juicy 5.14 implied run total with a great matchup.
There's a ton of power in the Blue Jays' lineup, and that could be on full display tonight when they face off against Mike Clevinger. Last season, Clevinger allowed a .414 SLG, .323 wOBA, 4.99 xFIP, 1.17 HR/9, and 42.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. His stats this season are roughly in line with last year's albeit, with a smaller sample size.
When it comes to Matt Chapman, he is absolutely blistering the ball this season. Chapman sits in the 97th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate, according to Baseball Savant. This means he's coming in with a 177 wRC+, .425 wOBA, .293 ISO, 46.3% fly-ball rate, and 46.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
The laces are nearly coming off the ball when Chapman makes contact this year. Love this matchup and have to add Chapman To Record an RBI (+115), as well.
Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+118)
With great pitching weather in Chicago, let's go to Justin Steele for over 5.5 strikeouts.
We see cooler temperatures and the wind blowing in, creating a great spot for Steele against the San Diego Padres. Steele comes in with a solid 25.3% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, 12.6% swinging-strike rate, and 26.9% called plus swinging-strike rate (CSW%). Steele has also been at 89, 101, and 96 pitches in his last three outings, putting things in a spot where he can get deeper into games.
The matchup against the San Diego Padres is somewhat middle-of-the-road given their 20.5% strikeout rate versus lefties (23rd in the league). However, the strong pitching conditions, underlying metrics, and high pitch count should put Steele in a spot to hit over 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
Willy Adames To Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)
The Milwaukee Brewers have a 4.69 implied run and are in a spot to bounce back against Spencer Turnbull.
When it's all said and done, Turnbull is a very average pitcher, and he struggles versus right-handed hitters. He's showing some reverse splits with a 7.00 xFIP, 41.7% fly-ball rate, 48.0% hard-contact rate, and low 13.5% strikeout rate versus righty hitters this season. There's nothing about his profile that suggests he is a pitcher we need to avoid; it's as simple as that.
We turn to Willy Adames, who is also a reverse splits hitter, being better against right-handed pitchers as a right-handed hitter. He showed this last season with a 115 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .236 ISO, and 44.1% fly-ball rate. His numbers this season are very similar to the ones from 2022, putting him in a great spot tonight.
