3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/12/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+300)
The Toronto Blue Jays have a slate-high 5.20 implied run total tonight and could pass that quickly.
The power the Blue Jays have in their lineup is undeniable, and that should be on full display tonight against Eduardo Rodriguez of the Detroit Tigers. In 2022, Rodriguez struggled versus right-handed hitters, allowing a .379 SLG, 4.32 xFIP, .109 HR/9, 39.4% fly-ball rate, and a low 18.3% strikeout rate.
He's off to another rough start this season -- albeit in only two starts. There's essentially nothing encouraging about Rodriguez on the mound, and he's a pitcher we want to actively seek out when he is pitching.
That leads us to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who ended last season with a 99 wRC+, .305 wOBA, .145 ISO, 38.8% hard-contact rate, and 25.5% fly-ball rate. It's not the picture-perfect set of metrics for Vladdy, but the overall power of the lineup will put him in a good spot, and Rodriguez won't be able to pitch around him.
As always, I'm adding Guerrero To Record an RBI (-115).
Adley Rutschman To Record 2+ Total Bases (+120)
All the Baltimore Orioles do is score runs.
This is going to be a trend all season, and we should look to jump on board early with an offense that can put up runs in a hurry. The Orioles are rocking a 5.10 implied run total. They're taking on Ken Waldichuk, a young pitcher with a total of 43.1 innings pitched in the MLB since the start of last season.
In that time, Waldichuk has allowed a .645 SLG, .433 wOBA, 2.94 HR/9, 5.01 xFIP, 45.9% fly-ball rate, and 32.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. He's simply not good enough, and the scoring potential for the Orioles presents a lopsided matchup we want to jump on.
Adley Rutschman was called up last season and, since that time, has been off to a modest start against left-handed pitchers. He's posted an 89 wRC+, .293 wOBA, .106 ISO, and 34.9% fly-ball rate. His numbers from just this season are significantly higher but come from a very small sample size.
The value in this prop ultimately comes from the Orioles' lineup overall -- and scoring expectation against the Oakland Athletics' pitching staff.
Eduardo Rodriguez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)
We'll go back to Eduardo Rodriguez here, targeting under 3.5 strikeouts tonight.
As noted, ERod isn't a good pitcher, and the struggles he has versus right-handed hitters are as clear as day. Seeing him get lit up for several runs and pulled early won't be a surprise to anyone.
It's also not as if Rodriguez is a big-time strikeout pitcher either. Last season, he posted an 18.4% strikeout rate, which was lower than the league average of 22.4%. We're seeing much of the same to start this season with just 6 strikeouts in 10 innings pitched thus far.
The Blue Jays also aren't an ideal matchup for strikeouts. They've got a 20.1% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers to start the season, which is 20th in the league. We want to see home runs against Rodriguez, leading to him getting pulled early.
