MLB ALCS Betting Guide: Yankees at Astros, Game 2
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Under 7.0 Runs (-110)
Yankees Moneyline (+122)
Yordan Alvarez to Record an RBI (+155)
Severino was really good in 2022, posting a 3.37 SIERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 12.3% swinging-strike rate. After missing basically three seasons due to injury, the righty returned to what he was back in 2018. Over his final three starts of the regular season, Severino recorded a 2.94 xFIP and 30.4% strikeout rate, taking things up a notch.
Houston Astros starter Framber Valdez is a stud, too, but he gets it done in a different way. With a 23.5% strikeout rate this season, Valdez relies on his pristine 66.5% ground-ball rate. That helped him limit dingers to 0.49 per nine, the second-lowest clip among all qualified starting pitchers.
While Valdez is obviously capable of shutting down the Yankees, he is more susceptible to the randomness of balls in play, and that got him at the end of the regular season as he surrendered 10 earned runs over his final three starts (15 2/3 innings).
All in all, I expect both of these pitchers to do well tonight, which has me backing the under.
I also like Yordan Alvarez to record an RBI (+155). It's pretty easy to like this +155 number for Yordan, especially given Severino's splits. Left-handed hitters struck out just 19.5% of the time versus Severino, and he gave up 1.61 homers per nine in the split. Alvarez finished 2022 with a stellar .462 expected wOBA. There was almost no difference in his wOBA against lefties (.424) and righties (.428), so Yordan is more than fine if he sees a left-hander later in the game.