MLB ALCS Betting Guide: Yankees at Astros, Game 2
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Yankees at Houston Astros
Under 7.0 Runs (-110)
Yankees Moneyline (+122)
Yordan Alvarez to Record an RBI (+155)
When he's right, Luis Severino can be nasty, and that's why I'm on the New York Yankees for Game 2.
Severino was really good in 2022, posting a 3.37 SIERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 12.3% swinging-strike rate. After missing basically three seasons due to injury, the righty returned to what he was back in 2018. Over his final three starts of the regular season, Severino recorded a 2.94 xFIP and 30.4% strikeout rate, taking things up a notch.
Houston Astros starter Framber Valdez is a stud, too, but he gets it done in a different way. With a 23.5% strikeout rate this season, Valdez relies on his pristine 66.5% ground-ball rate. That helped him limit dingers to 0.49 per nine, the second-lowest clip among all qualified starting pitchers.
While Valdez is obviously capable of shutting down the Yankees, he is more susceptible to the randomness of balls in play, and that got him at the end of the regular season as he surrendered 10 earned runs over his final three starts (15 2/3 innings).
All in all, I expect both of these pitchers to do well tonight, which has me backing the under.
I also like Yordan Alvarez to record an RBI (+155). It's pretty easy to like this +155 number for Yordan, especially given Severino's splits. Left-handed hitters struck out just 19.5% of the time versus Severino, and he gave up 1.61 homers per nine in the split. Alvarez finished 2022 with a stellar .462 expected wOBA. There was almost no difference in his wOBA against lefties (.424) and righties (.428), so Yordan is more than fine if he sees a left-hander later in the game.
