MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 10/11/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 6.5 (-122): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model is backing the over in this game, which gets going at 3:37 p.m. EST.
Logan Gilbert is pitching for the Seattle Mariners. Gilbert had a nice season, but he's not an overpowering hurler. He posted a meh 22.7% strikeout rate and gave up a 39.1% fly-ball rate. Gilbert closed out the regular season by striking out just seven hitters over 13 innings across games against the lowly offenses of the Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics.
This will be the fifth time Gilbert has faced the Houston Astros in 2022, and while he's done pretty well in the matchup, he's also permitted at least two earned runs in three of the past four starts against the Astros. I am siding with Houston's loaded lineup, and our algorithm has the Astros plating 4.22 runs.
Justin Verlander is getting the ball for Houston. Verlander had a remarkable season, especially when you consider that he was coming off a major injury. However, he wasn't as good as his 1.75 ERA would have you believe. His SIERA was 3.09 -- still good, obviously, but not otherworldly -- and he caught some breaks with fly-balls. Verlander surrendered a 43.6% fly-ball rate, but his homer-to-fly-ball rate was only 6.2% -- nearly half of his career 11.5% clip.
We project Seattle to score 3.51 runs despite the tough matchup.
So, in all, we have 7.73 runs coming across. We give the over a 62.9% chance to cash and mark it as a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation).
Over 7.0 (-104): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Gerrit Cole and Cal Quantrill are the probable starters for tonight's Game 1. I probably don't need to tell you which offense we expect to do the heavy lifting to get this game over the 7.0-run total.
Quantrill finished the regular season with a 4.50 SIERA and 16.6% strikeout rate. There's really nothing in his profile that suggests he'll keep the New York Yankees' at bay tonight in the Bronx. Our model has New York scoring 4.49 runs, but I think the Yanks have upside for more.
Cole is clearly one of the game's elite arms, so we'll need the Yankees' offense to do their part. With that said, Cole has given up a 40.6% fly-ball rate and 1.48 homers per nine, so when hitters make contact, they are doing some damage. Cole closed the campaign by giving up 17 earned runs and nine jacks over his last five starts (29 1/3 innings). We see the Cleveland Guardians plating 3.62 runs.
That's a total of 8.11 runs, and we think the over wins out 54.5% of the time. It's a three-star bet, according to our numbers.