MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 9/23/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Aaron Judge To Record an RBI (+105)
With Aaron Judge chasing history, we look to one of his player props.
If you've been following baseball over the last few months/weeks, you know that Judge is on the verge of tieing Roger Maris' home run record. Tonight, he has a favorable matchup versus Rich Hill and could certainly get that done. I want to look at his RBI prop. While Judge's home run prop is a good option, his RBI prop is still plus money and is easier for him to obtain.
Hill comes in allowing a .450 SLG, 4.22 xFIP, 1.08 HR/9, 37.5% fly-ball rate, and lower 29.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. That hard-contact rate is actually strong for Hill and has me slightly hesitant on the home run prop.
The flip side of that would be the fact there are 15 MPH winds blowing out to right field tonight at Yankee Stadium, but the temperature is going to be in the 50s. Extra wind is always great for a hitter, but cooler temperatures are not great for home runs. It's a very mixed bag of positives and negatives, which is why I prefer the simpler RBI prop.
Judge has elite numbers in the split, with a 174 wRC+, .410 wOBA, .349 ISO, 40.2% fly-ball rate, and 51.2% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. You can always go to the home run prop, but Judge 2+ RBI (+420) is a bigger number and the spot I'm going to sprinkle on.
Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114)
A strong matchup should help Chris Bassitt cash his strikeout prop.
Bassitt is on the road to take on his former team, the Oakland Athletics, where his strikeout prop is sitting at 5.5. Bassitt has good-but-not-great numbers with a 23.3% strikeout rate and a 10.3% swinging-strike rate. The strikeout rate is higher than the league average while the swinging-strike rate is below the league average.
Bassitt has been particularly strong in some recent starts, posting single-game strikeout rates of 34.8% and 38.5% in two of his last three outings. That led to Bassitt picking up 8 and 10 strikeouts in those two starts.
That kind of output is certainly on the table tonight since the Athletics come in with a 24.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league. The A's have managed to get worse as the season has gone on, carrying a 26.7% strikeout rate in the last 30 days and a 27.7% strikeout rate over the last 14 days.