MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 9/19/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Chad Kuhl | 11.0 | 5.68 | 50.2% | 34.2% | 21.3% | 12.2% | 6.4% |
| ATL | Cory Abbott | 8.5 | 5.37 | 44.9% | 29.4% | 17.5% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
| COL | Jakob Junis | 11.0 | 5.32 | 44.0% | 28.6% | 16.9% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
| BAL | Tyler Alexander | 8.0 | 4.55 | 30.6% | 17.5% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| LAD | Merrill Kelly | 7.5 | 4.53 | 30.2% | 17.3% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| SEA | Jose Suarez | 7.5 | 3.84 | 19.0% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| CLE | Sonny Gray | 7.5 | 3.81 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| MIA | Wade Miley | 7.0 | 3.70 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| MIN | Cal Quantrill | 7.5 | 3.69 | 16.8% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| LAA | Logan Gilbert | 7.5 | 3.66 | 16.4% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| TB | Luis Garcia | 7.0 | 3.58 | 15.3% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| DET | Tyler Wells | 8.0 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| HOU | Drew Rasmussen | 7.0 | 3.42 | 13.2% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| CHC | Edward Cabrera | 7.0 | 3.30 | 11.7% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| MIL | Max Scherzer | 6.5 | 3.28 | 11.5% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| NYM | Corbin Burnes | 6.5 | 3.22 | 10.8% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| WSH | Kyle Wright | 8.5 | 3.13 | 9.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| ARI | Clayton Kershaw | 7.5 | 2.97 | 8.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | MIL | 8.0 | 95.8% | 90.2% | 81.1% | 68.9% | 55.0% | 41.0% | 28.6% |
| Corbin Burnes | NYM | 7.8 | 95.2% | 88.8% | 79.0% | 66.2% | 51.9% | 38.0% | 25.9% |
| Kyle Wright | WSH | 6.1 | 85.6% | 72.6% | 56.7% | 40.7% | 26.7% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | ARI | 5.8 | 83.3% | 69.2% | 52.7% | 36.6% | 23.3% | 13.6% | 7.3% |
| Luis Garcia | TB | 5.8 | 83.1% | 68.9% | 52.3% | 36.3% | 23.0% | 13.4% | 7.1% |
| Logan Gilbert | LAA | 5.2 | 76.1% | 59.2% | 41.7% | 26.6% | 15.4% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
| Sonny Gray | CLE | 5.1 | 75.4% | 58.4% | 40.9% | 25.9% | 14.8% | 7.8% | 3.7% |
| Edward Cabrera | CHC | 5.1 | 74.7% | 57.5% | 40.0% | 25.1% | 14.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
| Merrill Kelly | LAD | 5.0 | 73.5% | 56.0% | 38.4% | 23.8% | 13.3% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
| Jose Suarez | SEA | 4.8 | 69.8% | 51.5% | 34.0% | 20.2% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Drew Rasmussen | HOU | 4.7 | 69.3% | 50.9% | 33.5% | 19.8% | 10.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Wade Miley | MIA | 4.3 | 61.9% | 42.6% | 26.0% | 14.2% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Cal Quantrill | MIN | 4.3 | 61.9% | 42.6% | 26.0% | 14.2% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Jakob Junis | COL | 4.1 | 59.0% | 39.5% | 23.4% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Tyler Wells | DET | 3.7 | 50.8% | 31.5% | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Chad Kuhl | SF | 3.7 | 50.6% | 31.3% | 17.0% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Cory Abbott | ATL | 3.5 | 45.7% | 26.9% | 13.8% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Alexander | BAL | 3.2 | 38.6% | 21.1% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | SF | Yes | 109 | Chad Kuhl | 29.9% | +235 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | Yes | 108 | Logan Gilbert | 26.7% | +275 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Yes | 100 | Cory Abbott | 25.9% | +285 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | No | 97 | Cory Abbott | 25.8% | +285 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | 112 | Tyler Alexander | 23.1% | +335 |
| Eric Haase | DET | No | 112 | Tyler Wells | 22.6% | +340 |
| Mike Trout | LAA | No | 103 | Logan Gilbert | 22.3% | +350 |
| Carlos Correa | MIN | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 22.2% | +350 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 21.8% | +360 |
| Travis d'Arnaud | ATL | No | 97 | Cory Abbott | 21.4% | +365 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | No | 107 | Merrill Kelly | 21.3% | +370 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Yes | 100 | Cory Abbott | 21.2% | +370 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | No | 103 | Max Scherzer | 20.8% | +380 |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | No | 97 | Cory Abbott | 20.4% | +390 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | Yes | 112 | Tyler Alexander | 20.1% | +400 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | ARI | Yes | 107 | Clayton Kershaw | 20.0% | +400 |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | No | 108 | Chad Kuhl | 19.8% | +405 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | No | 108 | Jakob Junis | 19.8% | +405 |
| Rowdy Tellez | MIL | Yes | 101 | Max Scherzer | 19.7% | +405 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 19.7% | +410 |
| Mitch Haniger | SEA | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 19.5% | +415 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | Yes | 112 | Tyler Alexander | 19.4% | +415 |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | Yes | 112 | Tyler Alexander | 19.4% | +415 |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 18.9% | +430 |
| Jesus Aguilar | BAL | Yes | 112 | Tyler Alexander | 18.7% | +435 |
| Mike Toglia | COL | Yes | 109 | Jakob Junis | 18.4% | +445 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | 92 | Edward Cabrera | 18.4% | +445 |
| Ronald Acuna | ATL | No | 97 | Cory Abbott | 18.2% | +450 |
| Joey Meneses | WSH | No | 97 | Kyle Wright | 18.2% | +450 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 18.0% | +455 |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | No | 107 | Merrill Kelly | 17.8% | +460 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | SF | Yes | 109 | Chad Kuhl | 17.8% | +465 |
| Joey Gallo | LAD | Yes | 102 | Merrill Kelly | 16.9% | +495 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Yes | 92 | Drew Rasmussen | 16.7% | +500 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | No | 94 | Drew Rasmussen | 16.7% | +500 |
| Brandon Crawford | SF | Yes | 109 | Chad Kuhl | 16.4% | +510 |
| Carlos Santana | SEA | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 16.2% | +515 |
| Ty France | SEA | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 16.2% | +515 |
| Brandon Nimmo | NYM | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 16.1% | +520 |
| Christian Walker | ARI | Yes | 107 | Clayton Kershaw | 16.0% | +525 |
| Joey Bart | SF | No | 108 | Chad Kuhl | 16.0% | +525 |
| David Villar | SF | No | 108 | Chad Kuhl | 16.0% | +525 |
| Justin Turner | LAD | No | 107 | Merrill Kelly | 15.9% | +530 |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | Yes | 109 | Jakob Junis | 15.7% | +535 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Sonny Gray | 15.7% | +540 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | Yes | 102 | Merrill Kelly | 15.6% | +545 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | Yes | 102 | Merrill Kelly | 15.6% | +545 |
| Jake Cave | MIN | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 15.0% | +565 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | SF | Yes | 109 | Chad Kuhl | 15.0% | +565 |
| Jose Miranda | MIN | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 14.9% | +570 |
| Dylan Moore | SEA | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 14.8% | +575 |
| Hunter Renfroe | MIL | No | 103 | Max Scherzer | 14.7% | +580 |
| Riley Adams | WSH | No | 97 | Kyle Wright | 14.6% | +585 |
| Vaughn Grissom | ATL | No | 97 | Cory Abbott | 14.6% | +585 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | No | 94 | Drew Rasmussen | 14.3% | +600 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | No | 94 | Luis Garcia | 14.3% | +600 |
| Dan Vogelbach | NYM | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 14.1% | +610 |
| Max Stassi | LAA | No | 103 | Logan Gilbert | 14.0% | +610 |
| Lane Thomas | WSH | No | 97 | Kyle Wright | 14.0% | +615 |
| Chris Taylor | LAD | No | 107 | Merrill Kelly | 13.8% | +625 |
| Will Smith | LAD | No | 107 | Merrill Kelly | 13.8% | +625 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | No | 90 | Edward Cabrera | 13.8% | +625 |
| David Peralta | TB | Yes | 92 | Luis Garcia | 13.7% | +630 |
| Ramon Urias | BAL | Yes | 112 | Tyler Alexander | 13.5% | +640 |
| Cody Bellinger | LAD | Yes | 102 | Merrill Kelly | 13.5% | +640 |
| Mike Ford | LAA | Yes | 108 | Logan Gilbert | 13.4% | +645 |
| Jo Adell | LAA | No | 103 | Logan Gilbert | 13.3% | +650 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | No | 108 | Jakob Junis | 13.1% | +660 |
| Elias Diaz | COL | No | 108 | Jakob Junis | 13.1% | +660 |
| Thairo Estrada | SF | No | 108 | Chad Kuhl | 13.1% | +660 |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC | No | 90 | Edward Cabrera | 13.1% | +660 |
| Nelson Velazquez | CHC | No | 90 | Edward Cabrera | 13.1% | +660 |
| Riley Greene | DET | Yes | 110 | Tyler Wells | 12.8% | +680 |
| Eduardo Escobar | NYM | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 12.7% | +690 |
| Luis Rengifo | LAA | Yes | 108 | Logan Gilbert | 12.6% | +690 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | No | 94 | Drew Rasmussen | 12.3% | +710 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | Yes | 103 | Sonny Gray | 12.1% | +725 |
| Kerry Carpenter | DET | Yes | 110 | Tyler Wells | 12.1% | +730 |
| Javier Baez | DET | No | 112 | Tyler Wells | 12.0% | +735 |
| Franmil Reyes | CHC | No | 90 | Edward Cabrera | 11.9% | +740 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | Yes | 112 | Tyler Alexander | 11.9% | +745 |
| Christian Bethancourt | TB | No | 94 | Luis Garcia | 11.7% | +755 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | Yes | 107 | Clayton Kershaw | 11.4% | +775 |
| Carson Kelly | ARI | Yes | 107 | Clayton Kershaw | 11.4% | +775 |
| Jordan Luplow | ARI | Yes | 107 | Clayton Kershaw | 11.4% | +775 |
| Harold Castro | DET | Yes | 110 | Tyler Wells | 11.2% | +790 |
| Andrew McCutchen | MIL | No | 103 | Max Scherzer | 11.2% | +795 |
| Taylor Ward | LAA | No | 103 | Logan Gilbert | 11.2% | +795 |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | Yes | 109 | Jakob Junis | 11.2% | +795 |
| Abraham Toro | SEA | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 11.0% | +805 |
| Jerar Encarnacion | MIA | Yes | 90 | Wade Miley | 10.5% | +850 |
| Kolten Wong | MIL | Yes | 101 | Max Scherzer | 10.4% | +860 |
| Jace Peterson | MIL | Yes | 101 | Max Scherzer | 10.4% | +860 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 10.4% | +860 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | No | 112 | Tyler Wells | 10.4% | +865 |
| Wander Franco | TB | Yes | 92 | Luis Garcia | 10.3% | +870 |
| Gio Urshela | MIN | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 10.0% | +895 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | CLE | No | 99 | Sonny Gray | 10.0% | +895 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | No | 90 | Edward Cabrera | 9.9% | +910 |
| Luke Voit | WSH | No | 97 | Kyle Wright | 9.9% | +915 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Sonny Gray | 9.8% | +915 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | Yes | 90 | Wade Miley | 9.8% | +920 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | Yes | 92 | Drew Rasmussen | 9.6% | +940 |
| Trey Mancini | HOU | No | 94 | Drew Rasmussen | 9.6% | +945 |
| Jose Siri | TB | No | 94 | Luis Garcia | 9.6% | +945 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | No | 94 | Drew Rasmussen | 9.6% | +945 |
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | No | 110 | Tyler Alexander | 9.6% | +945 |
| Robbie Grossman | ATL | Yes | 100 | Cory Abbott | 9.6% | +945 |
| Sam Haggerty | SEA | Yes | 103 | Jose Suarez | 9.4% | +965 |
| Luis Gonzalez | SF | No | 108 | Chad Kuhl | 9.2% | +985 |
| Alex Call | WSH | No | 97 | Kyle Wright | 9.1% | +995 |
| Brian Anderson | MIA | Yes | 90 | Wade Miley | 9.1% | +1005 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | MIA | Yes | 90 | Wade Miley | 9.1% | +1005 |
| Zach McKinstry | CHC | Yes | 92 | Edward Cabrera | 8.9% | +1025 |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | No | 108 | Jose Suarez | 8.7% | +1045 |
| Luke Maile | CLE | No | 99 | Sonny Gray | 8.5% | +1070 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | No | 108 | Jakob Junis | 8.4% | +1090 |
| Alan Trejo | COL | No | 108 | Jakob Junis | 8.4% | +1090 |
| Sandy Leon | MIN | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 8.2% | +1120 |
| Matt Wallner | MIN | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 8.2% | +1120 |
| Victor Reyes | DET | Yes | 110 | Tyler Wells | 7.8% | +1180 |
| Nelson Cruz | WSH | No | 97 | Kyle Wright | 7.6% | +1215 |
| Yandy Diaz | TB | No | 94 | Luis Garcia | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Steven Kwan | CLE | Yes | 103 | Sonny Gray | 7.4% | +1255 |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | Yes | 101 | Max Scherzer | 7.2% | +1280 |
| Omar Narvaez | MIL | Yes | 101 | Max Scherzer | 7.2% | +1280 |
| Matthew Duffy | LAA | No | 103 | Logan Gilbert | 7.2% | +1285 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | WSH | Yes | 100 | Kyle Wright | 7.2% | +1295 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | No | 99 | Sonny Gray | 7.0% | +1340 |
| Luis Garcia | WSH | No | 97 | Kyle Wright | 6.8% | +1365 |
| Charles Leblanc | MIA | Yes | 90 | Wade Miley | 6.8% | +1375 |
| Manuel Margot | TB | No | 94 | Luis Garcia | 6.6% | +1410 |
| Harold Ramirez | TB | No | 94 | Luis Garcia | 6.6% | +1410 |
| Nick Gordon | MIN | Yes | 103 | Cal Quantrill | 6.5% | +1435 |
| Eddie Rosario | ATL | Yes | 100 | Cory Abbott | 6.3% | +1480 |
| Jake McCarthy | ARI | No | 102 | Clayton Kershaw | 6.2% | +1520 |
| Gilberto Celestino | MIN | No | 99 | Cal Quantrill | 6.1% | +1530 |
